One of the most often repeated is that no insurgency can hope to defeat the extraordinarily lethal US forces. And who can deny this? It surely sounds sensible enough. But it's recently occurred to me that focusing on the lopsided contest between *the resistance* -- that easy-slogan defying mixture of Jihadis, Baathist professionals, Iraqi patriots and, it seems, the just nakedly ruthless -- may be missing the emerging shape of things.
While it's true Iraqi guerrillas are over matched in most fire fights with US troops (which, of course, have mechanized armor, close air support and all the rest of it at their disposal) they've proved themselves to be devastatingly effective against the police and national guard units of the new Iraqi state who are similarly armed as insurgent fighters but clearly less trained, motivated and, probably, hardcore.
This suggests that unless opposition fighters can be folded into whatever new government finally takes shape (or, somehow destroyed) Baghdad will be dependent on American military force for some time to come.
It's easy to see this as a nightmare situation for the Sistani led Shia lists that established their political clout as a result of the election.
.d.
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Iraqi forces desert posts as insurgent attacks are stepped up By Oliver Poole in Baghdad
(Filed: 25/04/2005)
Iraqi army and police units are deserting their posts after the recent escalation in insurgent attacks, according to reports from around the country yesterday.
The end of a relative period of calm after the election has posed the first real test for the embryonic security forces since coalition troops started cutting back on their military operations in February.
On average 20 Iraqis and two coalition soldiers have died every day this month.
Suspected Sunni insurgents set off two bombs yesterday near a Shia mosque in Baghdad that killed at least 15 people.
The attack came as political leaders continued to haggle over the formation of a new government. Iraq's new police and army units, instead of taking responsibility for imposing law and order, are abandoning patrols or taking refuge in their guardhouses when challenged.
On the Syrian border, US troops in the Sunni city of Husaybah report mass desertions. An Iraqi unit that had once grown to 400 troops now numbers a few dozen who are "holed up" inside a local phosphate plant.
Major John Reed, of the 2nd Marine Regiment, said: "They will claim that they are ready to come back and fight but there are no more than 30 of them on duty on any given day and they are completely ineffective."
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