Further evidence of fuzzy opinion on Iraq comes from a Gallup survey, conducted July 25-28. It did not ask about likelihood of succeeding, but rather about winning or losing. All respondents were asked whether the United States "can or cannot" win the war in Iraq, and whether it "will or will not" win the war.
The results show that 47% of Americans believe the United States can and will win the war, 6% believe it can but will not win, and 37% believe it cannot and will not win. This is a much more divided public than what the vague "success" question suggests in the Hotline/Westhill poll.
But even the Gallup results are not fixed. Half the sample was asked first if the United States "can or cannot win" the war, while the other half of the sample was asked first if the United States "will or will not win" the war. Then, the two half-samples were asked the respective follow-up questions.
The results show that when people were asked first whether the United States "can" win the war (Form A), 49% said yes. But among those who were asked this question second in Form B (after having been asked if the United States "will" win the war), 59% said the United States can win -- 10 points higher than in Form A. About half said the United States "will" win the war in each form.
These results suggest that expectations of whether the United States will "succeed" or "win" in Iraq, and even whether the United States "can" succeed or win, are highly susceptible to slight differences in question wording and question context.