The softwood dispute majoritarily involves westcoast softwood and the bulk of the major forest companies out there are now American owned. So the dispute is hurting us capital, BC workers and nominally BC gov coffers. Those are the players...guess which one is suffering the costs of adjustment?
And the real secret to the whole thing is that much of this dispute is about forcing the BC gov to allow an increase in the shipment of raw logs to saw-mills in washington and oregon. Which is exactly what has happened in order to circumvent the illegal tarrifs being applied by the USG. Given this, the USG is not going to capitulate but rather is going to demand a side-agreement which ensures an expanded flow of raw logs south of the border in order to keep US saw mills open. The CDN gov will capitulate to these demands because central Canada has no stomach for an expanded trade war.
Travis
Quoting Marvin Gandall <marvgandall at videotron.ca>:
> Ian (Autoplectic) wrote:
>
> > The USG will yield under NAFTA; it's a matter of getting political
> > mileage out of it for domestic consumption for a while longer. Same
> > with the dispute w/Brazil in the WTO. Right now there's just too much
> > testosterone in the global trade disputes, partly due to the war in
> > Iraq.
> >
> --------------------------
> I think you're right. It's a cheap bone to toss the Martin government. The
> Wall Street Journal editorial already points the way, plus there's
> offsetting pressure from the US building industry and other interests like
> the California vintners who think they could be a target for eventual
> retaliation if the dispute continues to fester. It's big news in Canada, but
> I'd be surprised if Bush would get any political mileage out of it in the
> US. Has it gotten more than a mention in the US media, and does anyone
> outside the lumber states give a damn?
>
>
>
>
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