By Peter Prengaman, Associated Press Writer
Saturday, December 3, 2005 (12-03) 00:32 PST Oxnard, Calif. (AP) --
<http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2005/12/02/financial/f1319 39S99.DTL>
With only 28 of the 70 workers he needs, foreman Francisco Barragan is worried that Deardorff-Jackson farm won't be able to harvest 800 acres of celery before it rots.
"A few years ago we could get people consistently," said Barragan, 50, a Mexico native who has overseen Hispanic farm crews in California for 15 years. "Now we might lose some crops because we don't have people."
Several things are changing the market for immigrant labor. Some workers opt for higher paying construction jobs, while both the government and civilian patrol groups such as the Minutemen have redoubled efforts to secure the still-porous southern border.
While farmers and allied business groups lobby for a guest worker program to regulate the millions of undocumented Hispanic workers already here or wanting to come, hard-line restrictionists push for law enforcement solutions to illegal immigration. That dynamic is dividing Republicans.
The result, immigration policy analysts agree: Don't bet that Congress will pass comprehensive reform proposals, some of which have languished for several years after President Bush jump-started the issue nearly two years ago.
With national elections in 2006 and a politically weakened president, even a promise to debate guest worker proposals early next year in the Senate may not amount to much.
"The president's political capital is so low right now. Is he going to use what little he has left on immigration reform?" asked Jaime Regalado, director of the Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs at California State University, Los Angeles. "Maybe, but I don't think so."
Bush renewed his push for a guest worker plan on a post-Thanksgiving trip to Arizona and Texas.
"There's a lot of opinions on this proposal," Bush said. "I understand that. But people in this debate must recognize that we will not be able to effectively enforce our immigration laws until we create a temporary worker program."
The several major reform proposals differ in their details, but one thing all sides agree on is that the current situation urgently needs attention.
Bush's proposal would give undocumented workers three-year work visas that could be extended for another three years, though workers would then have to leave for a year before applying again. Beyond the nod to businesses, it was aimed at wooing Hispanic voters for last year's presidential elections.
Still, many Republicans rejected it as unrealistic and criticized the president for not focusing more on border security.
Bush alienated many conservatives by calling the Arizona-based Minutemen "vigilantes" when they began patrolling the U.S.-Mexico border more than a year ago, said Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Study, which favors less immigration and stricter enforcement.
"The chief obstacle to reform is the president," said Krikorian.
Most of the viable reform proposals are Republican-led.
_ GOP Sens. John Cornyn of Texas and Jon Kyl of Arizona propose letting immigrant workers enter the country for two years, followed by a one-year break. Workers could repeat that pattern two more times, but then have to return home.
_ Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., back legislation that would let illegal aliens work in the U.S. for up to six years. After that, they would have to be on track to obtaining legal residency or leave.
_ Nebraska Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel has proposed giving undocumented workers legal status if they pass criminal background checks, have lived in the U.S. for at least five years, have paid taxes, can demonstrate a knowledge of English and pay a $2,000 fine.
But Hagel believes border security must be strengthened before a guest worker program can succeed.
Conservatives take that a step further, saying talk of reform is meaningless until immigration officials are more aggressive.
"Guest worker programs are worthless," said Minutemen President Chris Simcox. "We can't even talk about that until there is real government enforcement on the border."
Immigration officials say they are focused on terrorist threats, that it would be impossible to send home the entire illegal population — estimates suggest there are more than 10 million — in one swoop.
"We understand the public is sometimes frustrated, but like any law enforcement we have priorities" that also include counterterrorism, said Virginia Kice, a spokeswoman for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
More importantly, the government knows businesses are dependent on foreign labor, said Tamar Jacoby, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute who advocates both a guest worker program and resolving the immigration status of illegals currently in the country.
Most Americans are unwilling to do hard labor or farm jobs, she said, while many immigrants do them cheaply.
"Farming, construction, food processing, those businesses can't stay afloat without those workers," said Jacoby.
Barragan, the foreman, likes to tell the story of the last non-Hispanic who worked on the farm. It was 16 years ago that a Japanese immigrant came, cut cauliflower for two hours and quit.
"You never see any blacks or whites out here," said Maria Hurtado, 34, a Mexican who sorts tomatoes at the Deardorff-Jackson farm. "We are the ones who do this work."
Meanwhile, Barragan and Thomas Deardorff II, president of Deardorff-Jackson Co., are brainstorming ways to get workers for the celery crop. Their proven strategy — Spanish-language radio ads and offering to pay more than the standard $10 to $12 per hour — used to work, but this season's shortage seems too large for that.
"Every year we hope for a guest worker program but nothing happens," said Deardorff. "This problem could soon turn into an industry crisis."
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