Tuesday, Aug 23, 2005
Cruise missiles in sub-continent — The Sino-Pakistani nexus
G. Parthasarathy
India cannot be too careful about the manner in which China is supplying Pakistan with missiles to give latter the capability to strike at cities all across India. This considered with Beijing's opposition to a Permanent Security Council Membership for India suggests a continuing Chinese aim to "contain" India by encouraging Pakistan to seek "parity" with it. This means New Delhi must be realistic about Beijing's aims and intentions before normalising relations. It would be good to develop a national consensus on this issue.
ON JULY 18 the United States President, Mr George Bush, and the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, asserted that Washington and New Delhi would "work together to provide global leadership in areas of mutual concern and interest." Mr Bush assured Dr Manmohan Singh that he would work to "achieve full nuclear energy cooperation with India as it realises its goal of promoting nuclear power and achieving energy security". Less than a fortnight later, on July 28 the US, Japan, China, India, South Korea and Australia announced a new "Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate". This "Partnership" will involve cooperation areas of common interest like energy efficiency, clean coal, bio-energy, liquefied natural gas and civilian nuclear power.
Was this the beginning of a new US, China, India entente? The answer came a week later on August 4 when the American and Chinese envoys to the United Nations met in New York and decided to work jointly to torpedo efforts by Germany, Japan, Brazil and India to secure Permanent Membership of the Security Council. In today's world the US seeks to strengthen India's hands to promote a viable balance of power in Asia and then colludes with China to ensure that India does not get a Permanent Membership of the Security Council.
While the Bush Administration envisages an emerging and expanding role in the entire Asian and Indian Ocean Region and supports India's efforts for economic integration with East and South-East Asia, the same cannot be said of China.
Beijing's interest in containing New Delhi was evident in the way that it ganged up with the Clinton Administration's efforts to "cap, roll back and eliminate" India's nuclear programme. More important, China's efforts to "contain" India have remained a constant feature, manifest by its backing for Pakistan's nuclear weapons and missile programmes ever since 1976.
After providing Pakistan with the designs of nuclear weapons, China proceeded to supply Pakistan with fissile materials, supported its uranium enrichment efforts and provided it with plutonium reprocessing capabilities for miniaturising nuclear warheads.
What is even more significant about the Pakistan-China relationship is the manner in which China has supplied Pakistan with missiles to give latter the capability to strike at cities all across India.
The first supplies of Chinese missiles to Pakistan happened barely two years after the December 1988 visit of Rajiv Gandhi to China. Chinese supplies of M-11 missiles (christened Ghaznavi by Pakistan) with a range of around 300 km began around 1991.
Shortly after the visit of the Prime Minister, P. V. Narasimha Rao, to China in 1993, Beijing proceeded to provide Islamabad with nuclear capable medium-range DF-15/M-9 missiles (christened Shaheen 1 by Pakistan) with a range of 600-750 km. This supply was in violation of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). The M-9 has the range to target major population centres in North India, including Delhi.
The M-9 supplies compelled the Clinton Administration, which invariably turned a blind eye to Chinese proliferation activities, to impose sanctions on the manufacturers, Haiying Electro Mechanical Technology Academy, a subsidiary of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation. Around 1998, China started providing Pakistan with 1800/2000-km range nuclear-capable DF-21/21A missile capable of hitting as far south as Kerala and east to West Bengal.
An interesting feature of the Chinese nuclear and missile assistance to Pakistan is that all such assistance is channelled to the National Development Complex in Fatehjang, near the Chinese supplied nuclear power and reprocessing plants at Chashma and Khushab, in Pakistan's Punjab Province. This complex is headed by Pakistani nuclear scientist, Dr Samar Mubarak Mand, who is designated Chairman of Pakistan's Engineering and Scientific Commission; he is now emerging as Pakistan's national hero to replace the disgraced Dr A. Q. Khan.
The Chinese missiles assembled at Fatehjang are invariably tested in Baluchistan. The Shaheen-1 was test fired at Sonmiani in Lasbela district of Baluchistan. The Shaheen-2 was also test fired from Baluchistan. Dr A. Q. Khan was entrusted with assembling missiles of North Korean origin such as the Ghauri 1 and Ghauri 2. These missiles were test fired either from Dera Ghazi Khan or Jhelum district in Pakistani Punjab.
It is in this background that one has to view the announcement made by Dr Samar Mubarak Mand on August 12 that after the successful test firing of a 500-km range nuclear capable cruise missile in Baluchistan, Pakistan is going to commence serial production of these Babur Cruise Missiles in October.
Pakistan does not have the capability to produce cruise missiles indigenously. It is, therefore, evident that the Wen Jiabao visit to Pakistan has been followed not merely by new Chinese supplies of fighter aircraft, naval frigates and tanks, but also by the supply of advanced cruise missiles to Pakistan. China itself acquired the 250-km range "Moskit" cruise missile from Russia. It also acquired the 400-km range "Delilah" Cruise Missile from Israel. Finally, between 1999 and 2001, it clandestinely acquired from Ukraine X-55 cruise missiles capable of carrying a 200-kiloton nuclear warhead with a range of 2500 km. It has brought in hundreds of Russian technicians to develop cruise missiles.
All these efforts are being coordinated by the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation that has been a regular supplier of strategic missiles to Pakistan. A significant feature that has emerged in the recent past is that the military and missile technology that China acquires from Russia is finding its way to Pakistan. Has New Delhi brought this to the notice of its friends in Moscow?
Beijing's opposition to New Delhi's Permanent Membership of the Security Council, its reservations about joining and being associated in regional forums in Central, East and South-East Asia and its nuclear/missile relationship with Pakistan all suggest a continuing Chinese aim to "contain" India by encouraging Pakistan to seek "parity" with it. This does not mean that we should not seek to normalise relations with our northern neighbour. It merely means that we should be realistic about its aims and intentions. It would be good to develop a national consensus on this issue.
There is no doubt that there has been yet another major intelligence failure, as the Indian negotiating team evidently had no information about the impending Cruise Missile Test when finalising the text of the Agreement on Prior Notification of Missile Tests with its Pakistani counterparts, earlier this month.
The National Security Adviser, Mr M. K. Narayanan, was said to be determined to revamp the entire functioning of our external intelligence set-up after it was found that it did not have a clue about the palace coup in Kathmandu staged by King Mahendra, when the Monarch imposed emergency rule.
Sadly, apart from Indira Gandhi, no Prime Minister in recent years has paid adequate attention to developing our human and covert intelligence capabilities. One hopes that Dr Manmohan Singh will pay the same attention to doing this as he does to other aspects of national security.
(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan.)
Copyright © 2005, The Hindu Business Line.