Sunday, December 18, 2005
VIEW: Kalabagh Dam: what is to be done?
-Dr Mubashir Hasan
Political issues dominate people's minds. Opposition to the construction of Kalabagh dam politically unites the people of Balochistan and the Frontier provinces with the people of Sindh against what they perceive as the bully called Punjab, which runs Islamabad
If you asked the people of Sindh, the Frontier and Balochistan today to choose between increased irrigation water supplies in their canals and an unprecedented chance to wage a struggle for greater political and economic freedom from Islamabad, they would choose the latter.
Pakistan faced a similar situation at the end of the 1960s over the Six Points demands by the Awami League. The demands were political as well as economic. Islamabad made greater development allocations for East Pakistan. However, money was not the principal factor for Dacca then, as water is not the principal factor for Karachi, Peshawar or Quetta now. The citizens of East Pakistan came out in support of the demands principally due to two main factors - the disparity of wealth and development between the provinces and the oppressive governance of Islamabad. Today, all of Pakistan, even Punjab, wishes to wage such a struggle.
Islamabad finds itself between the devil and the deep sea. If the Kalabagh dam is not built there will be less and less water for winter crops - a sure recipe for inter-provincial strife and reduced grain production in the years to come. But if Islamabad decides to go ahead with the construction of the dam it will face the prospect of a massive struggle by the people. The result could be as uncertain as what President Yahya Khan faced when he decided to use force to crush the demands of the people of East Pakistan.
The essence of the resistance against the construction of the proposed Kalabagh dam in Sindh is only nominally about the details of its design. Engineers can change the design as ordered. It is about the Indus. It is about the lost glory of the river around which developed an advanced civilisation. Modern Sindhis do not articulate this but it is in their blood, it is in their folklore. What remains of the Indus is the most precious and the most loved of their possessions. The Indus is a highly emotional issue; when combined with politics its importance cannot be over-stated.
Few are aware that at the beginning of the 20th century the minimum quantity of water flowing to the sea below Hyderabad was between 70,000-100,000 cubic feet per second (cusecs). In summer it was more than a million cusecs. Nowadays not a drop is allowed below Kotri barrage for about nine months in an average year. The construction of canals by the British-Indian government and Pakistan has resulted in one of the great ecological disasters of the world.
The political situation in Pakistan today is not qualitatively different from that in 1970. Piled up then were the grievances of East Pakistan. Today it is those of Sindh, Balochistan and the Frontier. Political issues dominate the people's mind. Opposition to the construction of Kalabagh dam politically unites the people of Balochistan and the Frontier provinces with the people of Sindh against what they perceive as the bully called Punjab which runs Islamabad.
Along with the people of Sindh they too have had long standing grievances against the dictatorial and undemocratic governance of Islamabad for over half a century. The resistance against the building of the dam symbolises the political unity of the three, so called, smaller provinces. In the terminology of political science the situation is as 'revolutionary' today as it was in 1970.
What then should be done? First, the risk of relying on the coercive power of the state to build the dam is absolutely not worth taking. It is a political issue that should be addressed politically.
Second, all propaganda for the construction of the dam should cease as it is counter-productive. We may recall that in the 1940s, Quaid-i-Azam's Muslim League had no press at all in the last years of the campaign except the Urdu Nawa-e-Waqt of Lahore. The successful campaign for Pakistan was waged by the anti-Pakistan Indian press through its opposition to the establishment of Pakistan. The more the Indian press wrote and Congress leaders spoke, the more the Muslims learnt about the demand for Pakistan.
It is a pity that the people of the Punjab are not aware that the benefits that will accrue to them from Kalabagh dam will in no way be extraordinary. If other provinces are against the dam so should be Punjab in the greater national interest. By not constructing the dam Punjab shall lose no more than the others.
Third, Islamabad should initiate measures to restore the glory of the Indus. It should build at least three barrages, one at the mouth of the river and two between the Arabian Sea and Kotri. They should be two-way barrages, able to take water from the sea into the river and from the river into the sea. With the barrages we can regulate the water and salinity levels in the river as they existed at the beginning of the 20th century. We can also restore marine life to its condition a century ago. The glory of the lower Indus can thus be restored.
Fourth, it should initiate political dialogue at the national level about: full provincial autonomy to the provinces; establishing an institution to conduct free and fair elections; devolution of powers relating to police, magistracy, jails and tax collection to the grassroots level; forbidding the use of secret funds for political purposes; supremacy of the parliament over the executive; independence of judiciary; the status of women; and the creation of a machinery at the national level for the protection of human rights.
The writer is a former federal minister
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