On Sat, 31 Dec 2005, Wojtek Sokolowski wrote:
> And what is the best we can hope for in this world of freedom of plenty?
> That Democrats may make some progress in the midterm elections, which is a
> very big if anyway?
An extremely big if, thanks to the enormous advances in gerrymandering that computers have made possible in the last 10 years. There was a short blurb on this subject in yesterday's FT's predictions for 2006 article. The last paragraph is a killer. If the Dems do as well as the Repugs did in 1994 -- the well-oiled "Contract With America" campaign" -- they'll only get a fifth as many as seats.
<quote>
Q: Will the Democrats take back Congress?
A: All the stars seem to be aligned for Democrats to recapture the US Congress in the 2006 mid-term elections. As in 1994 when Republicans stormed to power, an unpopular president is reeling from defeat on his domestic initiatives and trying to shore up a party facing growing corruption allegations.
But a polarised country and sophisticated gerrymandering have simply left too few seats up for grabs. To control the Senate, Democrats would need to win every competitive race. And that would be easy compared with the House of Representatives where only some 30 of the 435 seats are genuinely competitive -- in the 2004 election, 98 per cent of incumbents were re-elected.
In 1994, Republicans won 54.6 per cent of the popular vote and picked up 52 seats. If Democrats gain a similar share of the vote this time, they would probably pick up just 10 seats -- well short of the 16 they need to regain control of the House.
Edward Alden
<end excerpt>
Michael