-----Original Message----- From: lbo-talk-bounces at lbo-talk.org [mailto:lbo-talk-bounces at lbo-talk.org] On Behalf Of Doug Henwood
Back in the late 1980s/early 1990s, there was all sorts of speculation about when Japanese GDP would surpass U.S. GDP. In 1995 (!), well after Japan's bubble had burst, the Nation asked me to do a graph extrapolating, on the basis of then-current growth trends, when Japan would take over as #1. Looking back at the spreadsheet now, it looks like it was supposed to happen in 2001.
Doug
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Japan doesn't have the demographic/geographic capability to overtake the US. Imagine the capital-labor ratio that would be needed to achieve a comparable gdp. China and India not only are way beyond the US in terms of population they, unlike Japan, have got the land mass to grow even as the ecological constraints may bite soon given the lack of effective environmental regs. I know you know all this, but it's gonna be interesting as hell to track as to whether and how soon Capital may have to reckon with the idea of ruinous competition on a global scale analogous to how the US did it prior to WWI and after WWII. That's what makes the politics of 'global governance/law' so important for workers..........
Ian