>Doug started this by asking about the (presumably clueless,
>sheep-to-the-slaughter, victims) people who take advantage of this
>product in a tone that said to me that he thinks that this is a good
>example of David losing to Golliath. I think we can safely allow that
>"real estate speculators" need no protection from themselves.
>
>Tut-tut'ing people who are trying to make a positive difference in their
>lives is unattractive.
Speaking of which, and exchange from October 21, 1999.
<http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/1999/1999-October/018358.html>
>Jordan Hayes jordan at Infothecary.ORG
> Thu Oct 21 09:07:02 PDT 1999
>
> From dhenwood at panix.com Thu Oct 21 08:58:37 1999
>
> What's going on, I think, is that the great U.S. bull
> market, the one that began on August 13, 1982, is showing
> signs of old age. It's taking as long to die as Brezhnev,
> and I can't decide whether it will go out with a bang or
> a whimper, but it sure seems to be going out.
>
>Using my Doug Henwood inverse filter, I just bought January OEX
>calls; the January effect this year is gonna be huge, at least 10%
>I'd say, and to paraphrase the Lakota, it's a good day to be long!
>
>/jordan
I wasn't making a trading recommendation; I was saying the bull market was on its last legs. And it wasn't a bad call; the S&P would add another 19% before its eventual peak five months later, on March 24, 2000, but it had already turned in 83% of its price gains from the August 12, 1982 low, and was 98% complete in time. The January effect wasn't +10% or more; it was -5%.
And I don't think we're going to have secular bull markets like that of 1982-2000 any time soon; we'll have cyclical ones, like we've had since the 2001 lows, but ones measured in years and double digit percentage gains, not ones measured in decades with three- and four-digit gains.
Unlike a lot of lefties, I don't make bubble calls often, but the housing market smells like a bubble today.
Doug