[And naturally, if reality proves exactly the opposite of what you predicted, the solution is to PUSH HARDER. That square peg will get in that round hole yet.]
[Note that if you want really low divorce rates, you have to go to godless Europe. They beat even Massachusetts.]
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/54940a8a-6dad-11d9-ae0d-00000e2511c8.html
Financial Times
January 24 2005
South finds families that pray together may not stay together
By Andrew Ward
When Massachusetts became the first and so far only US state to
legalise gay marriage last year, the loudest protests came from the
south. Bible Belt states such as Georgia and Alabama portrayed
themselves as the defenders of traditional family values against
Godless liberals in the north-east.
However, surveys of marriage and divorce across the 50 states paint a
very different picture of US society. They show that the most stable
families are concentrated in the easy-going north-east, while the
God-fearing south has the most broken homes.
Southern states account for eight of the 10 highest divorce rates,
while nine of the 10 lowest are in the north-east, according to the US
Census Bureau.
Massachusetts, home of John Kerry, the unsuccessful presidential
candidate, has the lowest rate at 2.4 divorces per 1,000 people,
against 4.1 in President George W. Bush's Texas.
Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee - states in which it is
common to see the Ten Commandments displayed outside rural homes -
have an average rate of 5.6, above the national average of 4.
The statistics are an embarrassment to a region that has always
trumpeted the slogan: "Families that pray together stay together."
Some southern lawmakers appear to be slowly recognising that the most
urgent threat to family values comes not from homosexuals in
Massachusetts but from disintegrating marriages within their own
states.
Republican senators in Georgia are pushing a bill through the state
legislature that would lengthen the waiting time for a divorce
involving children from 30 days to six months and force divorcing
parents to attend counselling sessions.
"A cooling-off period gives people the chance to see what it's like to
live apart and share custody of children," says Senator Mitch
Seabaugh, co-sponsor of the bill. "Many divorcees have told me that a
longer waiting period might have saved their marriage."
A similar bill was blocked last year by Democratic lawmakers but the
latest version stands a good chance of success after the Republicans
seized control of both houses of the state legislature in November's
election.
The bill is part of a flurry of socially conservative legislation
under consideration in southern states as the Republicans strengthen
their control of the region.
Lawmakers in Georgia have also promised legislation to make it more
difficult for women to get an abortion.
Critics have accused Georgia Republicans of meddling in people's
private lives. But Senator Nancy Schaefer, another co-sponsor of the
divorce bill, says the heavy social and economic cost of marriage
breakdowns makes intervention essential.
According to Ms Schaefer, divorce costs Georgia $1bn (EUR770m, £530m)
a year or about $30,000 per divorce in direct and indirect costs,
including increased welfare and Medicaid payments to broken homes.
She believes her proposed legislation would cut divorce by 25 per
cent, saving Georgia $250m a year.
Ms Schaefer cites research showing divorced women are five times more
likely to live in poverty, while children of divorced parents are
seven times more likely to end up in poverty, twice as likely to drop
out of school and, in the case of boys, twice as likely to end up in
prison.
Professor David Popenoe, director of the National Marriage Project at
Rutgers University, blames high divorce rates on the south's lower
levels of income and education compared with the wealthy north-east.
Arkansas has the second-highest divorce rate and third-lowest
household income among the 50 states; Massachusetts has the highest
household income and highest university graduation rate.
A study by Barna Research Group suggested religious people were no
less likely to get divorced than atheists and agnostics.
Prof Popenoe cites age as another factor in the success and failure of
marriages.
Southerners, whose conservative society frowns on sex before marriage,
are more likely to marry young. In more liberal parts of the country
people tend to have multiple partners and cohabit before eventually
choosing a spouse.
The trend towards getting married later has helped reduce the
nationwide divorce rate from 4.7 per 1,000 people in 1990 to 4 in
2001. However, the figure still dwarfs the European Union's rate of
1.9.