> Southern states account for eight of the 10 highest divorce rates,
> while nine of the 10 lowest are in the north-east, according to the US
> Census Bureau.
>
> Massachusetts, home of John Kerry, the unsuccessful presidential
> candidate, has the lowest rate at 2.4 divorces per 1,000 people,
> against 4.1 in President George W. Bush's Texas.
<snip>
> The trend towards getting married later has helped reduce the
> nationwide divorce rate from 4.7 per 1,000 people in 1990 to 4 in
> 2001. However, the figure still dwarfs the European Union's rate of
> 1.9.
Nuts. It just occurred to me that this is probably almost entirely accounted for by a statistical artifact: if you don't get married, you don't divorce. So what happens in Blue States is that by the time you marry, you've had two long term cohabitations that led to break ups, whereas in Red States, those have been two marriages.
And it would make sense that in Europe it would be even lower because there they've gone even farther in institutionalizing cohabitation. Many people in France have never technically been married or divorced, but have several kids, co-benefits, and what we would call ex-spouses, on account of formalizing their relationships with things called Pactes de Solidarite.
What "the trend towards getting married later" really means is "the trend toward shacking up for years first." That's how it brings the divorce rate down. We aren't counting the practice swings towards the average.
Michael