>Let's try this from a somewhat different direction.
>
>The stated mission of the US in Afghanistan was to overthrow the Taliban and
>rebuild the country, a so-called 'failed state'.
US contributed massively to the creation of jihadi forces/culture during the Soviet occupation and ignored them for many years upto 9/11. US is going take many years to clean up the mess it created in first place for Afghans & their neighbours.
>The overthrow portion of the job was done but thus far, we've seen precious
>little rebuilding and the mission has changed to become, essentially, relentless
>Taliban and Talib sympathizer neutralization.
Tailban strength is largely along Pakistani order. You don't have Taliban elsewhere in Afghanistan. As for reconstruction, the progress will have to be measured in decades rather than years. Afghanistan obeys different temporalities.
>Of course, the US has the ability to maintain this effort for a long time but
>it's a far from ideal situation from a strategic point of view (it's much better
>to have bases in a more or less pacified territory).
Pacification can largely be done by Afghan forces. Afghanistan's location is crucial; it's in a region surrounded by Russia, China, India, Iran, Iraq. It would be tempting for the US to maintain permanent military bases in Afghanistan.
> More sustainable would be
>the actual completion (indeed, an actual start) of the reconstruction project so
>the need for relentless counter-Taliban operations diminishes.
I am not sure why Dwayne feels there is no reconstruction in Afghanistan. (e.g. See the news report "India to assist Afghanistan in mining" appended below.) Of course, one may complain about the pace of reconstruction.
>Because Ulhas, despite its wealth and military capabilities not even the US can
>afford to be in a low-level hot war for 10, 15 or 20 years which is how long the
>guerrilla war would last so long as the conditions making it an attractive option
>to Talib followers persist.
I can't believe US/NATO can't afford to keep 20,000 troops, if there aren't many casualties. But the UN can always do that, if US won't.
>As to Pakistan's ISI filling the void if/when the US withdraws...
>
>There are wheels within wheels here yes? Can we be certain the ISI would be able
>to suppress (again, without addressing actual causes) these movements forever?>
I am not sure which movements Dwyane is referring to.
Ulhas
Afghan News Network
India to assist Afghanistan in mining
(Financial Express) - NEW DELHI, FEB 24: India has agreed to help Afghanistan in developing its mining sector. The issue was discussed by visiting Afghanistan minister of mines Mir Mohammad Sadiq with minister of state for coal and mines Dasari Narayana Rao here on Thursday.
Mr Sadiq sought India’s help in developing inventory, exploration and utilisation of mineral resources in Afghanistan. Afghanistan has about 300 minerals including coal, copper, zinc, gold and rare minerals, and only four out of 15 coal mines in the country were operational, according to the Afghan minister. He particularly wants India’s expertise in restarting cement plants.
Mr Rao said that an expert team, which will include a representative of cement industry, would leave for that country soon.
The Afghan minister was assured that the Geological Survey of India, Indian Bureau of Mines, Mineral Exploration Corporation Ltd and Coal Mines Planning and Design Institute will extend maximum cooperation in revitalising and development of mining industry in Afghanistan.
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