[lbo-talk] Descended into chaos...

[Peter Lavelle]

Just a quick comment on oil prices. It is a myth that
petro consuming countries are obsessed with oil
prices. What they (the companies and their investors)
are obessed with is predictability and a modicum of
certainty when it comes to oil prices. Plans always
change - just as long as the planners have a
reasonable sense of what the future will be. Wars,
change of governments, etc are just priced in. I know
lots of people in the oil business in Russia (local
and foreign), it is amazing how they assess the future
in terms of decades, irrespective of day-to-day
events.   

 
> 
> Hmm, before the war, Rupert Murdoch said the point
> was to get oil 
> down to $20. Now that it's close to $60, has the
> goal been redefined?
> 
> How is this control going to be exercised? Will
> Washington tell oil 
> companies not to sell to China? Will the spot and
> futures markets all 
> run through Dick Cheney's office?
> 
> A while back I met a guy from Lawrence Berkeley Lab
> who knows a lot 
> about Chinese energy policy. He says they're
> obsessed with 
> conservation and efficiency. And it shows. According
> to World Bank 
> stats, they're more energy-efficient than the U.S.
> (As are most other 
> countries.) So it's not clear who's getting more
> heavily taxed, if 
> the point is to raise oil prices.
> 
> Invasion planners had said the war on Iraq would be
> self-financing, 
> because of oil sales. Was that a ruse? Or have plans
> changed?
> 
> Doug
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