FRIDAY, JUNE 03, 2005
Breaking Ice At Vladivostok
DMITRY KOSYREV
China, Russia and India set the ball rolling
The June 2 meeting of foreign ministers of Russia, China and India in Vladivostok was a watershed event. They arrived specially for the occasion and did not meet on the sidelines of some international conference as one might have imagined. Energy and strategy dominated the discussion agenda, and for good reasons. The meeting might have set the stage for further conclaves along similar lines.
The three countries seem to realise that the gains to be had from cooperation outweigh the spoils of a competitive approach. While India's and China's energy needs are expected to grow exponentially in the years to come, Russia is assured of two long-term buyers. Strategic concerns over the oil-rich Central Asian region are not divorced from this reality.
The Russian media would have us believe that the three countries are intent upon creating an anti-American alliance in Asia, launching programmes as an alternative to Washington's policies. This can be true only if we accept that any international organisation or meeting that is not sponsored by Washington is anti-American in character.
The task of Russia, which hosted the event, was seemingly modest. Against the background of rapprochement between China and India, all Russia had to do was help work out a programme of regular tripartite interaction, or define the topics of mutual concern to be included later in the format of trilateral talks at the level of diplomats and businessmen. So, the meeting was an effort to outline issues rather than adopt specific decisions on them.
Ordinary as Russia's endeavour might seem, organising such a meeting was no mean task. It meant coordinating documents of Russian departments dealing with China and India, two countries in respect of which Russian foreign policy has evolved along very different lines. The three countries came up with a number of ideas for the agenda of the meeting, which the departments were finding hard to ingest. The effort, in the end, was rewarding.
Russia hosted the meeting, but certainly did not initiate it. According to officials close to the office of President APJ Abdul Kalam, who recently visited Moscow, India was at least as interested in the tripartite exercise. Prior to the meeting, Chinese officials said little about their expectations. But they gave clear signals to suggest that the need to coordinate political and economic plans of the three countries had become more urgent than ever. The level of coordination between China and India is so low that Russia could assume an important role here. China and India emphasise the importance of Russian and Central Asian energy resources for their own development.
A comparison of existing pipeline projects from this region to the south and south-east could prove to be interesting. The Chinese, who coordinate work on the eastern oil pipeline, under way in various Russian administrative bodies, including local authorities, are apparently aware of this fact. The recent Moscow visit of the Indian president confirmed that under the cooperation scheme of Russian fuel-carriers and weapons in exchange for Indian investments and technologies, trade turnover between the two countries could increase from the current level of $3 billion to $28 billion in a decade.
Russia-China trade, whose current volume exceeds $20 billion, is built on the same principles. The three countries are unanimous that they should avoid rivalry in the struggle for Russian (or Kazakh) oil and gas and explore opportunities for joint projects. According to information from New Delhi, the future agenda looks at furthering interaction between chambers of commerce in the three countries. The delegations would discuss energy issues, customs and other tariffs in times to come.
Regional developments in Central Asia - the area that lies in the triangle bordering Russia, China and India - were another area of concern. The region can become either a hub of economic opportunities or a source of threat to all three countries. India includes northern Pakistan and Afghanistan in this triangle. This is only logical because recent events in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan resemble the Afghan and Pakistani reality. Russian and Chinese policies in Central Asia are defined in the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). India is not a SCO member. However, the trilateral meeting in Vladivostok might help clarify this issue and show the role India can play in Central Asia.
According to petroleum minister Mani Shankar Aiyar, India could invest up to $25 billion in the Russian oil and gas sector. President Vladimir Putin has great respect for prime minister Manmohan Singh. He is keen on imparting a new direction to Indo-Russian relations. Meanwhile, Russian entrepreneurs are waking up to the global significance and potential of the Indian economy. Vladivostok could herald a new spring in economic and strategic ties.
The writer is a Russian political analyst .
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