See, for instance, Walter Y. Oi, "The Economic Cost of the Draft" (_The American Economic Review_ 57.2, <http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-8282%28196705%2957%3A2%3C39%3ATECOTD%3E2.0.CO%3B2-F>, May, 1967, pp. 39-62). Oi writes:
<blockquote>To determine the probable number of reluctant volunteers, the Department of Defense made a survey in the fall of 1964 of servicemen and civilians in the military ages of 16-34. First-term regular enlisted men (who had all voluntarily entered service between 1960 and 1964) were divided into true and reluctant volunteers on the basis of their responses to the question: "If there had been no draft, and if you had no military obligation, do you think you would have volunteered for active military service?" Those who replied "no definitely" or "no probably" were classified as reluctant. The percentage of true volunteers in subgroups identified by age and education at time of enlistment are shown in the first column of Table 4. The proportion of true volunteers is highest in the youngest and least educated group and declines with age and educational attainment. . . . The same question on draft-motivation was asked of officers on their first obligated tours and revealed that 41.3 percent of officer accessions were reluctant volunteers. (Oi, p. 45)</blockquote>
I scanned Table 4 of Oi's article and posted the scanned image at <http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v294/montages/WalterOiTable4Small.jpg>, so those who do not have easy access to _The American Economic Review_ can see it themselves.
In brief, the average percentage of true volunteers among the total regular enlisted men in their first term of service was estimated in 1964 to be 61.9%. The percentage of true volunteers among regular enlisted men who were 17-19 years of age and had less than high school education at entry was 79.3%; and that of true volunteers among regular enlisted men who were 17-19 years of age and high school graduates at entry, 63.7%. Those who were 17-19 years of age and had less than high school education at entry (27.7%) and those who were 17-19 years of age and high school graduates at entry (40.8%) constituted the majority of the DOD sample. Among those who were 20 and over and had some college education at entry (10.6% of the DOD sample) were the least likely to be true volunteers: only 32.7% of them said, "Yes, definitely," or, "Yes, probably," when asked the aforementioned question.
>In other words, there's a quasi-draft happening inside the military already.
You got it. What would be the likely result if the Pentagon conducted a survey today asking members of the National Guard and Army Reserve, "If you had no military obligation, do you think you would have volunteered for active military service?"
<blockquote>In an unpopular war, National Guard troops and reserve soldiers represent a potential political land mine. They tend to be older, and are more likely married with children. They're also much more entrenched in their civilian communities than the regular military. In Iraq, for example, the average age of U.S. Marines killed in action is 21; the average age of guardsmen lost in combat is 10 years older. (Rone Tempest, "Who's Dying in Our War?" Los Angeles Times, <http://www.latimes.com/features/printedition/magazine/la-tm-calguard05jan30,0,452235.story?coll=la-home-magazine>, January 30, 2005)</blockquote>
Give their age and family obligation, the percentage of true volunteers among guardsmen and reservists deployed or deployable in Iraq today would probably be as low as -- and perhaps lower than -- that of true volunteers among regular enlisted men who were 20 and over and had some college education at entry during the Vietnam War.
Keep in mind that "Today more than 40% of the 150,000 U.S. soldiers in Iraq are either National Guardsmen or reserves. By the end of the spring, that percentage is expected to rise to more than 50%" (Tempest, January 30, 2005).
That's why Military Families Speak Out, et al.'s campaign to call attention to the use of the National Guard is promising (cf. <http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/pipermail/lbo-talk/Week-of-Mon-20050228/004425.html>). -- Yoshie
* Critical Montages: <http://montages.blogspot.com/> * Greens for Nader: <http://greensfornader.net/> * Bring Them Home Now! <http://www.bringthemhomenow.org/> * OSU-GESO: <http://www.osu-geso.org/> * Calendars of Events in Columbus: <http://sif.org.ohio-state.edu/calendar.html>, <http://www.freepress.org/calendar.php>, & <http://www.cpanews.org/> * Student International Forum: <http://sif.org.ohio-state.edu/> * Committee for Justice in Palestine: <http://www.osudivest.org/> * Al-Awda-Ohio: <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Al-Awda-Ohio> * Solidarity: <http://www.solidarity-us.org/>
