[lbo-talk] Narnia, China, Letters of Credit

Daniel Davies d_squared_2002 at yahoo.co.uk
Mon Mar 14 00:47:47 PST 2005


ahhh that was a nice weekend ...

Just catching up ...

On Narnia I'd say go for it. The Narnia books are an important part in any child's development and anyone who missed out on them has potentially missed something important. The important bit is that when the kid has finished reading all these wonderful stories about swords and sorcery and talking animals, some well-meaning relative or friend will drop by, note the child's interest and say something like "Of Course, You Realise ... Aslan Is Jesus". At this point, any self-respecting kid will think "Jeezus, that's lame" and learn the important lesson that grownups are devious bastards who are always trying to foist something improving on you, and in general ought not to be trusted. That's the role the Narnia books played in the development of my worldview anyway.

On China, I really think we need to step on the Nouriel Roubini et al argument that China has to do this that or the other because of the danger of a "capital loss equal to 9% of GDP" on their US dollar holdings. This would be a purely notional mark-to-market loss. The Chinese US investments, post a devaluation, would buy roughly the same amount of US assets, goods and services that they would have bought before. They would buy fewer Chinese goods and services, but this would just be a formal recognition of the already existing fact that China's current trade surplus is an amount of money which could not possibly be spent or reinvested in the Chinese economy. The Chinese government might do all sorts of things, but to suppose that they are worried about the annual P&L of their reserves management account is, in my view, wrong.

Finally, someone asked about a "financial instrument called a letter of credit" and I'm answering onlist because it might be important. A letter of credit is not in general a financial instrument; it's a basically letter from a bank which facilitates payment on an import-export transaction

http://www.bizhelp24.com/export_import/letter_of_credit.shtml

IMO, anyone who has any business dealing with letters of credit would know exactly what they wanted one for. If someone is inviting you to "invest" in a letter of credit when you don't know what one is, then be very careful as they may be attempting to defraud you. If you're trying to import or export something and somebody's asked you for or offered you a letter of credit then it ought to be pretty straightforward; my advice would be to call up your banker and make him sit down and explain it until you do understand it - after all, it is you who will be paying for the bloody thing.

best, dd

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