--- Dwayne Monroe <idoru345 at yahoo.com> wrote:
> There are credible, non-hysterical arguments on both
> sides. I've read essays by
> oil geologists who seem resigned to the rapid
> increase of demand and, at first
> static, then swiftly declining supply and
> counter-essays by equally well informed
> and experienced folks who say exactly the opposite
> (or push the peak date well
> into the future).
So what are the good arguments against it? Most of what I've heard is either along the lines of Wanninski's assertion that there are large unsurveyed areas that just have to have undiscovered reserves, or a sort of weak Julian Simonism: Those clever scientists will think of *something* if you dangle enough money in front of them.
To the former engineers say that they have a good idea of the conditions that create petroleum and natural gas, and aside from the deep ocean and Antarctica that are too hard to work in anyway, the likely places have been picked over. In any case the easy-to-find giant fields that supply by themselves a sizable percentage of the current production have been found and exploited.
The latter argument just sounds like Dilbert: If I don't understand how to do something, it must be easy.
I recently saw a lecture by a petrogeologist who works in methane hydrates (?), one of the supposed future replacements for conventional oil, and he dismissed the notion that they'd be a reasonable replacement. He also pointed out other hydrocarbon replacements (shale, tar sands) would have to be brought on line *now* to forstall a production gap.
He displayed a graphic from a 1994 report from SomeBigOilCorp with projections of energy sources into the mid-late 2100s. Total energy use was supposed to follow its present curve more or less, hydrocarbons would suppy maybe 2/5, 1/3 or so was wind and solar, and some 15% was labeled "surprises". Nice.
I hear far more reassurances from economists than oil people, and I don't find that... reassuring. I don't buy the Mad Max scenarios, but an eternal 1981 sounds bad enough.
Andy
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