Financial Times - March 30, 2005
Democracy still a dream for Egypt's beleaguered Islamist movement By William Wallis
For Mahmoud Abd el-Salam and Hossny Hassan thisdoes not feel like springtimefor democracy in the Arab world.
The two men - one a vet, the other an agricultural engineer - sympathise with Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood and have been active promoting its values in the Giza governorate of Cairo.
They are recovering from three weeks in police detention and show fresh scars allegedly from electric shocks and beatings by state security agents.
The experience has left them in little doubt of the limits on their freedom. In a wider crackdown prompted by a protest march in central Cairo last Sunday, some 230 members of the Muslim Brotherhood have now been arrested.
The protest was a sign that the movement - the largest and best organised opposition group in Egypt - has decided to assert itself amid signs that President Hosni Mubarak is under pressure to introduce democratic reforms.
In theory, a constitutional amendment announced by the 76-year-old autocrat last month paves the way for candidates from officially sanctioned parties to contest presidential elections for the first time next September.
But this gesture offers little to the Muslim Brotherhood, a strong influence in much of the Muslim world since its creation in the 1920s, but which has never been legalised. Instead the movement is faced with fresh dilemmas in its struggle for recognition.
Those who favour adopting a more confrontational approach appear to have the upper hand. But there have also been signs they might seek more limited gains should Mr Mubarak be prepared to deal.
The ramifications are not just academic. The debate between secularism and Islamism has helped paralyse politics in Egypt for many years. Analysts believe the Brotherhood's position outside the law has also fed the periodic emergence of more violent fundamentalists, and could do so again.
Mr Mubarak, however, is sticking to his guns. "The law forbids parties based on religion. If you allow them to establish a political party it would undermine democracy," argues Mohamed Kamal, a member of the ruling National Democratic party's political committee.
More open participation by Islamists might also undermine the relations Egypt is pursuing with neighbouring Israel, and put at risk the nearly $2bn (¤1.5bn, £1.1bn) received each year from the US in military and other aid.
Yet the Muslim Brotherhood's strength is also partly a result of government policies. Secular leftwingers and liberals who might be competing in the same opposition space have ossified under emergency laws in place for the past 24 years. They now have little presence among the population.
The Brotherhood, on the other hand, has been tolerated as a religious force to varying degrees since the 1970s when Anwar Sadat, then president, gave them leeway to counter leftwingers in the universities. Under Mr Mubarak they were able to extend their influence while his government focused on crushing a more radical Islamist fringe.
Despite routine repression such as that experienced by the two men in Giza, the Brotherhood now controls professional associations, is influential in universities and its social work consistently shows up the inadequacies of the state. In a free vote it would present an unpredictable challenge to the ruling NDP.
Mr Kamal suggests that, even with the current rules, their candidates could win more seats in parliament running as independents. What he does not mention is that last time this looked likely - in 1995 and 2000 parliamentary elections - many Brotherhood followers were allegedly prevented from voting. They will have a fresh chance in parliamentary elections in November.
How to press their case for legal recognition has put the Brotherhood in a quandary. One faction has always favoured the gradual indoctrination of society. For them, limited accommodation with the regime may be preferable to anything that jeopardises the foundations they are laying.
Another group has embraced democracy and advocates more direct action to win recognition as a political force.
"We are not going to create chaos. We will build gradual pressure. The aim is to push the regime to reform, not to change the regime itself," says Dr Essam Elerian, a leading Brotherhood member.
There is also talk of co-ordinating more closely with other opposition forces including leftwingers and liberals whose small pro-democracy protests are described by Dr Mohamed Habib, the Brotherhood's deputy leader, as "bubbles in the air trying to break the fear in people".
Meanwhile, there is little reason to think the government will back down. Since Sunday, 84 members of the Brotherhood have been remanded in custody. "We have a real dilemma on our hands," says Dr Habib. "We are up against a coercive police regime. We are also working with a population that is passive."