There is no way we can confirm whether there was a plot to kill Musharraf this time.But it's a plausible story.
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Why would his regime claim or admit an event if it wasn't true? This is particularly intriguing since these are plots by AQ supporters from within Pakistani Armed Forces and Pakistan is nuclear weapon state.
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Yes, it is plausible. There's no denying this. As you say, there were two previous attempts and Jihadis do have Musharraf in their cross hairs. So plausibility is not in doubt.
However, as to the regime's claims in this instance, there has been, according to Dawn, an official denial.
See:
http://www.dawn.com/2005/05/07/top8.htm
A pattern has emerged: dramatic announcements, followed by denials or a strange silence as the decisive blows (arrests of supposedly *key operatives* and military incursions into Jihadi sympathetic areas -- or, at least, areas described as such) fail to produce promised results.
At times, we are caught in a bit of a perceptual bind; Jihadis on the one side dreaming totalitarian dreams and, on the other side, their state enemies who simultaneously wage actual counter terrorism while using the unfortunate fact of Jihadis to further their agendas (which, often, are only attractive in comparison to the Jihadi alternative).
.d.