> I agree with your explanation for the decline of unions and union
> militancy, a little less with your expectations about how the working
> class would respond to a deep crisis. Remember, even in the thirties, the
> initial political response wasn't mainly one of greater class
> consciousness. There were a number of populist demagogues who achieved a
> wide following. Huey Long and Francis Townsend are hard to characterize in
> left-right terms. But perhaps the most popular of all, Father Coughlin,
> was unmistakably fascistic. Industrial unionism, which burst forth in
> 1934, supplied a strong antidote. But in the absence of big industrial
> concentrations, the working class is much more fragmented and prone to
> manipulation. If an economic meltdown happened tomorrow, the force best
> positioned exploit people's anger is the Republican-fundamentalist
> alliance. They are already quite successful at this.
---------------------------------------------
Maybe. The most we could say with some confidence is that there'd be
polarization to the left and right occuring in and outside of both parties,
and it would depend on the amount of traffic in each direction. You've
pointed to the factors favouring the right. My own sense - maybe my own
form of wishful thinking - is that the socially conservative Republican mass
base is more shaky than is generally appreciated in this moment of Bush
triumphalism. It could disintegrate if these folks found themselves, and
despite themselves, needing a party committed to large-scale state
intervention in the economy to restore their lost jobs and income. That's
what happened in the 30s and gave the Democrats new majorities composed of
many disparate and sometimes antagonistic forces, and provided many new
openings for the left. Right now, the level of jobs and incomes is such that
social rather than economic issues remain at the forefront, which always
favours the right. And even this can be overstated. Polls consistently show
the majority of Americans still hold progressive views on a wide range of
issues ranging from equal rights for women, gays, and racial minorities,
dying with dignity, stem cell research, separation of church and state,
judicial independence, the UN, etc. Maybe our widespread dystopic fears are
exaggerated.
MG