Izvestia May 19, 2005 Article by Dmitriy Orlov, general director of the Political and Economic Communications Agency: "Revisiting the Presidential Address"
Freedom, justice, our own path in life - this trio of themes in the Russian president's address to the Federal Assembly is notable first and foremost for the fact that it encompasses virtually everything. In actual fact, here we have human rights, "liberalization of the entrepreneurial space", the burgeoning wages of public sector workers, "Russia's civilizing mission on the Eurasian continent", and even the forgotten fight against alcoholism - all "in one bottle". The simple answer to the question "Why?" is that "they (the authorities) have nothing to say". In actual fact things are considerably more complex than this. Speechwriters have compiled the president's various messages into one whole and that whole is addressed to Vladimir Putin's new majority.
Just like a puzzle, a new majority is beginning to emerge from various segments of society and it is a majority focused on the incumbent president. This is clearly not a "majority of hope", as it was in 1999-2003 - because there are very painful reforms underway in the country. This is an entirely pragmatic national coalition, which, at the very least, has adapted itself to the changed political system and the economic situation.
Not long ago some strands of public opinion were clearly unfavorable for Putin. According to data from the Levada Center, in August 2004 only 37% of citizens supported monetization ofbenefits to one degree or another while 53% of citizens were opposed to it. Only 38% of citizens supported changes in the procedure for the formation of executive power in the regions, while 48% were opposed to it (VTsIOM, September 2004). The president's rating in terms of trust was inevitable changing under its own momentum and against this background it was beginning to seem that the presidential majority - which is in fact a heterogeneous and unstable structure- was falling apart at an accelerated rate.
This did not happen. Back in February the level of monetization of benefits had risen (to 42 percent) while the level of hostility toward the process had fallen sharply (to 47 percent). The negative differential in the assessments was just 5 percent compared to a threatening 16 percent in August. The government finally took responsibility for the failures of monetization (43 percent, all sources - Levada Center) while public opinion was clearly starting to favor gubernatorial reform: according to information from VTsIOM, in March the cessation of direct elections of the heads of the regions was supported by 54 percent of respondents, while just 39 percent did not support it.
During Vladimir Putin's time in office there have been significant changes in the extent to which Russians feel satisfied with their lives. Just five years ago only 56 percent of respondents were satisfied with their position in society, while today that figure is 66 percent; the corresponding figures for peoples' satisfaction with work are 37 percent and 42 percent; for satisfaction with the material situation of their family - 24 percent and 31 percent; for satisfaction with their family diet - 40 percent and 56 percent; for life as a whole - 59 percent and 63 percent (surveys carried out by the "old" VTsIOM in February 2000 and by the Levada Center in January 2005).
The rapid "revival" of the president's rating in terms of the people's trust and the overtly positive dynamic of in the people's perception of the tough decisions that are linked with his name in one way or another testify to the fact that the presidential majority has undergone qualitative changes. In the same way as before it is heterogeneous and unstable but a nucleus has taken shape within than majority - a nucleus of those people who have adapted to reforms, including painful reforms, and who are prepared to support a responsible policy to continue them.
Nu, zayats, pogodi!
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