Chuck Grimes wrote:
>
>
> Views about the decision to go to war are highly correlated with
> beliefs about prewar Iraq. Among those who say that going to war was
> the right decision, 73% believe that Iraq had WMD (47%) or a major
> program for developing them (26%), and 75% believe that Iraq was
> providing substantial support to al Qaeda...'' (from October 28, 2004)
The implcit claim in this paragraph is that belief in these facts (or non facts) determines views about the war. I think it highly probable that the opposite is true. Those who support the war (because that's what people do) and those who trust their leader (because that is what sensible people do) believe the facts that supports that trust. Going along has been the grounds for the success of homo sapiens (and preceding homo species) for hundreds of thousands of years, and the burden of proof is always on those who oppose going along.
Moreover, it makes perfect sense to take a nap, go to a brothel, wash the dishes, chat one's neighbor about morel-hunting, watch a movie, take a walk in the park, pay the utility bill, or just loaf rather than even _listen_ to arguments against going along. So before presenting contrary facts one has to present a reason for wanting to hear the facts. And before presenting that reason one has to catch someone's attention & persuade them to listen. Only then to facts or arguments begin to make any difference.
That reason for listening is usually a public uproar made by a visibly substantial number of those expressing the opposing view. That means gradually collecting those who already to some extent hold that opposing view, and persuading them that it's worthwhile to create an uproar. And that, incidentally, is _really_ difficult. Anyone who has tried to organize as much as a cub scout picnic knows that one will find all sorts of people who think it's a good idea -- no problem of persuading them of that -- but who either don't have the time or (and this is the huge barrier) don't think it's worthwhile to make an uproar, because public opinion is against one.
Carrol