The start of “Operation Successor 2008”
By Peter Lavelle untimely-thoughts.com Nov 14, 2005
The promotion of Dmitry Medvedev as First Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov’s elevation to Deputy Prime Minister strongly suggests that the Kremlin has put into play its plan to anoint a compromise candidate to succeed Vladimir Putin in 2008. That person is, most likely, Dmitry Medvedev.
First the changes:
1. Promotion of Dmitry Medvedev as First Deputy Prime Minister – he will remain Gazprom chairman.
2. Promotion of Sergei Ivanov as Deputy Prime Minister – he will remain Minister of Defense.
3. Promotion of Sergei Sobyanin, 47, the governor of the Tyumen region in Siberia and a member of the ruling United Russia party, appointed the new head of the Kremlin administration. Sobyanin was elected governor in January 2001 with more than 50% of the vote. Also there is a strong oil connection.
4. Promotion of Bashkir prosecutor Alexander Konovalov as presidential envoy to the Volga Federal District, replacing Sergei Kiriyenko, who had been given other duties.
5. Promotion of Kamil Iskhakov, the 56-year-old former mayor of Kazan, the capital of Tatarstan, to presidential envoy to the Far East Federal District, replacing Konstantin Pulikovsky.
What do these changes mean?
Most importantly, the Kremlin’s many factions – not just the “liberal statists” and the “siloviki” – have decided that Dmitry Medvedev is their compromise candidate to succeed Putin in 2008. The compromise has less to do with ideology and more to do with maintaining the balance between the “Gazprom” and “Rosneft” energy lobbies.
I have written elsewhere “Operation Successor” would start when Russia’s “oil wars” came to an end. Thus, we can assume that the fate of Yukos’ last two large production units (and Sibneft’s frozen 20% share packet) has been decided – most likely in favor of Rosneft.
Why Medvedev? More than any other reason is his position at Gazprom. Whatever deal has been made among the “energy lobbies,” he is seen as the candidate to honor it. I still stand by my prediction that Putin will take over Medvedev position at Gazprom after he leaves office – to reinforce that deal.
What is next?
Medvedev has been given a high profile and well financed portfolio. He is tasked to oversee national projects addressing the most acute problems, i.e. healthcare, education, housing, and agriculture. Medvedev has not been awarded a plum job – all of these issues are pressing and politically sensitive. However, there is every reason to believe he will be given access to enormous funds, i.e. the Infrastructure Investment Fund - $2.44 billion in 2006, $2.55 billion in 2007, and $2.56 billion in 2008.
In this position, Medvedev will be given media coverage every time a new hospital, school, and residential housing building is opened. Clearly, he is being positioned to be the “populist-caring” face of the Kremlin elite.
Medvedev’s promotion puts him, for all intents and purposes, at least at par with Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov and quite possibly on a collusion course with Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin and Economics Minister Gref – both against playing politics with the budget at the expense of fiscal responsibility. We should expect lots of sparks within the Cabinet as the presidential election approaches.
If succeeds in his new position, it is likely he will be made prime minister before the 2008 election. For all the bad press Fradkov gets, it should be remembered that he does nothing more or less demanded of him sent to him by the Presidential Administration.
Is Medvedev a good choice?
Yes, he understands how the government works (and doesn’t work, the regions, personalities, problems). He is, for the most part, ideologically neutral and a pragmatist. Medvedev has intimate knowledge of Kremlin infighting and who wants what from whom. He may not have a many “positives” in the minds of voters today, but importantly he certainly doesn’t have any “negatives.” Medvedev is young, articulate, and reserved (just like his patron Putin).
What about Sergei Ivanov?
The short answer is that he is the “muscle” behind “Operation Successor.” As deputy prime minister, it will be his job to mobilize state resources (covering all the security forces) to ensure the “operation” comes to fruition. It is not surprising that Putin decided on Ivanov as unofficial campaign manager for Medvedev – he is trusted and loyal to a fault.
Importantly, if for some reason Medvedev fails as the compromise candidate, Ivanov could be proposed as a stand in. This makes sense: if something happens to Medvedev, the political elite would rather rally around a military-security figure than a politician.
Will “Operation Successor” succeed?
There is every reason to believe so at this point. The Kremlin would not have commenced the operation without ensuring everybody was on board.
So, if you are tired of seeing Putin on the nightly news, get ready and get used to Medvedev’s face.
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