[lbo-talk] GM Bankruptcy Fears Rising on Wall Street

Dwayne Monroe idoru345 at yahoo.com
Tue Nov 15 12:13:12 PST 2005


Typically, these sorts of stories are met with statements about Japanese autos being better built than American -- routinely offered as the primary explanation for any US auto firm's difficulties.

There's truth in that observation but it may take us only so far. Although some automakers are doing better than others in certain markets, I wonder if there are, quite simply, too many vehicles chasing too few consumers across the globe able to buy.

.d.

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GM Bankruptcy Fears Rising on Wall Street

By ALEKSANDRS ROZENS, AP Business Writer

NEW YORK - An increasing number of investors are betting that General Motors Corp., the world's largest automaker, may be forced to seek bankruptcy protection within the next six to 12 months as it struggles to overcome slumping sales and the high cost of health care benefits for workers and retirees.

Concerns about the auto maker's future are showing up in the credit default swaps market, where investors effectively buy insurance protection against defaults. Holders of GM debt who want to arrange a hedge against the risk that they won't be repaid are finding that the cost of buying the protection has risen dramatically in recent days.

"The markets are telling you that more traders are starting to see a greater risk that a default scenario could happen sooner in time than later," said John Tierney, a credit strategist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York. "You cannot deny there is a pattern here."

GM spokesman Jerry Dubrowski responded by saying the automaker has "no plans to declare bankruptcy," and he noted that GM has about $19 billion in cash on hand. Beyond that, he declined to discuss recent pricing trends for credit default swaps. "Typically we don't comment on stock prices or bond prices," he said. "We don't think it is appropriate to do that."

At issue is the nearly $31 billion in debt related to GM automaking operations that ratings agencies already have downgraded to junk status, or below investment grade. Dubrowski said GM's total debt, including debt sold by its General Motors Acceptance Corp. unit, now stands at $276 billion.

Credit default swaps for GM are now trading at what is known as an "upfront" basis, meaning a bondholder seeking protection against a default has to pay more money up front because the Wall Street firms arranging the hedges have to pay more to protect themselves

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full at --

<http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051115/ap_on_bi_ge/gm_bankruptcy_fears>



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