On Sun, 20 Nov 2005, Doug Henwood wrote:
> [what, if anything, does this mean?]
>
> Israel's Sharon unleashes political earthquake
> By Allyn Fisher-Ilan
> Sun Nov 20, 6:34 PM ET
>
> JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will quit his ruling Likud
> ahead of snap elections and form a new centrist party, to completely reshape
> Israeli politics and peacemaking, a source in his office said on Sunday.
This has been discussed as a logical option ever since he floated the Gaza plan. Since then he's had 2/3rds support nationally, but razor thin support in his party, with Bibi constantly threatening him from the right. And procedurally he came to depend on support from Labor. So why not cut adrift from his right wing, who are minority nationally, and join the Peretz wing of the Labor party in forming a new centrist party? That would allow him to capitalize on being the most popular candidate.
It was always thought he might do this if there had to be an election because it's really a question if he could get renominated leader of the Likud. He got his way in the party several times by threatening it.
Fast week finally made it doubly likely that it would happen because:
1) the election of Peretz immediately forced elections when Peretz said Labor would no longer support him -- something Labor always could have done, since Sharon no longer had a party majority; and
2) the same election of Peretz made Peres homeless and in need of a new party. And on a very close election. (I think Peretz beat Peres 42-40%).
So now Sharon can punish the wing that has attacked him for being in a grand coalition and Peres and can punish the wing of his party for the same. And culturally, these two guys have much more in common with each other than either does with his rival in his own party.
Of course this is Israeli politics, and what we expect next is tons of somersaults and unpredictability. But this first step was as expected as anything ever was, and has obvious reasons behind it.
Michael