My thought at the moment (flip of the coin) is that, in the end,Peres will think better than to make this move to the "National Responsibility" Party.
Even if he does join and it becomes the Sharon/Peres ticket, I think that they are misreading the size of their potential constituency. The popularity of Sharon or Peres is within the context of their position inside a specific party and their history therein. Once you take them out of that context, it is impossible to realistically transfer their percentage of support with them.
Peres never won an election and has trouble even with gaining a plurality of support within his party. Most Israelis mistrust Sharon even if they supported him in the withdrawal from Gaza. Moreover, when Likud/Labor party members have to make a decision whether to jump onboard the new party, they must weigh whether it is worthwhile to endanger their positioning within their present party. Many, I am sure will think twice about joining a party which has no track record and likely little longevity. Again, we’ll see how many actually jump on board.
I think, however, that if it is a three way race between Sharon, Peretz and Netanyahu, that Peretz will find himself in very good positioning.
There is much hatred for Netanyahu among the working people because of his policies as Finance Minister.
Perhaps I will be shown to be mistaken, but at this point I think that Sharon without his party base will not keep the same numbers he has at present, and I think that Sharon and Netanyahu will split the Right/Center Right vote and that the rest will form around Peretz and other smaller parties that would have a coalition with Labor.
But again, I agree with Michael that there is much unpredictability in the situation now, and we will have to see how things play out at least for the next couple weeks.
There is also the strange situation that if no one will agree on the State Budget and pass it in the Knesset, there could be another election about a month after the upcoming one.
Which would be a strange situation indeed.
Bryan
Michael Pollak wrote:
>
> Fast week finally made it doubly likely that it would happen because:
>
> 1) the election of Peretz immediately forced elections when Peretz said
> Labor would no longer support him -- something Labor always could have
> done, since Sharon no longer had a party majority; and
>
> 2) the same election of Peretz made Peres homeless and in need of a new
> party. And on a very close election. (I think Peretz beat Peres 42-40%).
>
> So now Sharon can punish the wing that has attacked him for being in a
> grand coalition and Peres and can punish the wing of his party for the
> same. And culturally, these two guys have much more in common with each
> other than either does with his rival in his own party.
>
> Of course this is Israeli politics, and what we expect next is tons of
> somersaults and unpredictability. But this first step was as expected
> as anything ever was, and has obvious reasons behind it.
>
> Michael