[lbo-talk] Wow!

[Wojtek Sokolowski]

Carrol:
> This was John Adams's point 2 centuries ago when he declared that the
> British government could not be depended upon to act in its own
> interests. It is the fly in the ointment when one tries to predict the
> future actions of an institution, a government, a class by describing
> the objective interests of the entity concerned. That kind of prediction
> only works if (a) the analyst is correct on what the objective interest
> of the particular entity is and (b) the entity knows clearly and exactly
> its own interests. The two estimates have to coincide for the prediction
> to be accurate.

There are also two additional elements 3) the elite knows clearly the
importance ranking of it multiple interests (many of which are conflicting)
and 4) the analyst can determine what that ranking is.

Wojtek