By PETER LAVELLE
MOSCOW, Oct. 24 (UPI) -- Should the election of Lech Kaczynski, a social conservative and opponent of further economic liberalism, be an issue to worry the Kremlin? After all, Kaczynski has a long history of slighting Russia to bolster his nationalist credentials at home. The tone of Poland's foreign policy toward Russia is set to be more assertive under Kaczynski's tenure, but the substance of relations will most likely remain unchanged.
While campaigning, Kaczynski stated his first foreign visit would be to the United States to underscore the priority he places on the trans-Atlantic friendship. His definition of the trans-Atlantic friendship is how Poland can better carve out a stronger position in the European Union as it deals with its very uneven relations with the Kremlin.
The average Russian knows little about Lech Kaczynski (or his twin bother Jaroslaw -- who for all intents and purposes controls the largest party in parliament), but the Kremlin most certainly has taken note of the president-elect's attitude toward Russia. During this year's 60th anniversary commemorating the end of the Second World War in Moscow, Kaczynski suggested stripping the former Polish communist leader Wojciech Jaruzelski of his rank of general for accepting Putin's invitation to attend the event.
As mayor of Warsaw, Kaczynski supported the city council's decision to rename one of the city's squares after the separatist Chechen President Djokhar Dudayev. Not surprisingly, the Kremlin expressed its intense displeasure.
In August this year, remembering the tragedy of the 1944 Warsaw Uprising, Kaczynski stoked anti-Russian feeling by pointing out the unwillingness on the part of Joseph Stalin to order the city's relief to support Polish resistance fighting the Nazi Army.
During last month's parliamentary campaign, Jaroslaw Kaczynski stated he supports "colored" revolutions on the territory of the former Soviet Union. In an interview with the Polish magazine Central European Review, he made his views about Russia and the post-Soviet space crystal clear: "We will see the disintegration of the Soviet Empire to its end and distance ourselves from the potential Russian threat."
He added, "A Poland with a strong position in Kiev and hopefully in Minsk, a Poland belonging to the six mightiest countries in Europe and having good relations with the United States -- Russians will simply have to take this Poland seriously."
The future of Russo-Polish relations will depend on how the Kaczynskis define the word "seriously." Ambivalence and even out-right anti-Russian sentiment is part and parcel of Polish political culture and history. However, the Kaczynskis tapped into this sentiment in a very different way while in political opposition. Kaczynski's arrival at the summit of political power was on the back of an anti-corruption campaign and Russia's involvement in the Polish economy.
The Kaczynskis and Jan Rokita, expected to be Poland's next foreign minister, have long denounced and investigated alleged business relations between Polish and Russian businesses. Rokita chaired the parliamentary commission investigating the involvement of Russia's oil giant Lukoil to privatize an oil refinery in Gdansk. The Kaczynskis bitterly criticized the previous leftist government's connections to Russian big business.
Will Russo-Polish relations continue to decline in the duel control of the Kaczynskis? Beyond the rhetoric of the campaign trail and attempts to stir up public opinion, it is probably inconceivable that bilateral relations could worsen. The Kaczynskis have a long history of displaying political pragmatism and their war of words against Russia most likely has more to do with the role both would like to see Poland play in the EU.
What the Kaczynskis most probably want is what the outgoing government and president attempted in 1997 -- to position Poland as the primary player in the EU's eastern policy. To accomplish this, Poland's foreign policy will depend on relations with Germany, France and the Ukraine, as well as Russia.
The first major foreign policy test the Kaczynskis face is the planned Russian natural gas pipeline to Germany via the Baltic Sea, bypassing Poland. Warsaw wants Berlin to have the pipeline re-routed or cancelled. The new grand coalition in Germany is unlikely to reverse the previous government's decision to pursue the project. Europe's other major players have not raised any serious objections to the pipeline. If not handled correctly, Polish protestations may create what the Kaczynskis most want to avoid -- Poland standing alone without support from large neighbors and allies.
The Kaczynskis are consummate but pragmatic politicians. The on-going war of words between Warsaw and Moscow could get worse, but Poland's historic dilemma of being situated between Europe and Russia will inevitably ensure that Poland will continue a pragmatic foreign policy.
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(Peter Lavelle is a Moscow-based analyst and lived in Poland off and on during most of the 1980s and 1990s.)
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