On Sun, 04 Sep 2005 17:45:03 -0400 snitsnat
<snitilicious at tampabay.rr.com> writes:
> At 04:50 PM 9/4/2005, Doug Henwood wrote:
> >[This si one of the most depressing polls I've ever read. Bush
> looks to be
> >suffering no political damage, at least on first read.
>
>
> Don't forget the crisis bounce. Presidents always get a bounce when
> there's
> a crisis: the rally around the leader effect.
>
> In two weeks, the polls will reveal that he lost at least 3 points.
>
> If not, then the civil war thing I told you about offlist yesterday
> is what
> seems most likely to me!
That seems about right to me. Actually, I had expected that Bush would get a bounce out of this crisis because as you say presidents almost always do when there is a crisis. At the same time, I thought that the recriminations wouldn't start in ernest for at least a month or two. In fact the response to NO has been so poor that instead the recriminations have started almost immediately. That's got to have an impact on his poll numbers within the next few weeks.
It should also be kept in mind that Bush like other Republicans has about 35% of the electorate that is going to stick with him no matter what, even if he were to be shown on TV killing his wife and daughters. As I recall, Nixon's poll rating were still well into the thirties right up to the night that he resigned from office.
The important thing is the 50% or so of the electorate that doesn't like the way that Bush is handling. Those are the people (as Carrol would undoubtedly remind us) that we have to work with. Right now, there is no reason for us to get too worked up over the 35% that is going to stick with Bush regardless of anything that he does or fails to do.
>
> Kelley
>
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