ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: KATRINA'S AFTERMATH - 9/11/05 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Monday, Sept. 12, 2005
Bush Hits a Career Low in Approval As Katrina Response Ratings Worsen
Public views of the federal government's hurricane response have grown sharply more critical in the last week, pushing George W. Bush's leadership and performance ratings to career lows. A record 57 percent of Americans now disapprove of his work overall.
As striking as Bush's rating - his disapproval is higher than the worst for either of his last two two-term predecessors - is the intensity of sentiment against him: Forty-five percent of Americans "strongly" criticize Bush's performance in office, an unusually deep well of disapproval. Far fewer, 27 percent, strongly approve.
Bush gets only 50-50 ratings for strong leadership and for trust in a crisis - long his strong suits, both now down sharply to career lows. A record 61 percent say he doesn't understand their problems. And his ratings on other issues have soured as well: A record 62 percent disapprove of his work on Iraq. On the economy, 58 percent disapprove; on gas prices, it's a huge 72 percent. Even on handling terrorism, long the keystone of his support, just half now approve of Bush's performance.
One brighter spot for the administration is the nomination of John Roberts as chief justice of the U.S. Supreme Court: Fifty-five percent support his confirmation.
KATRINA - On Katrina, opinion has moved further away from Bush and his administration. Fifty-four percent now disapprove of his work on the hurricane, up seven points from an ABC News/Washington Post poll Sept. 2, four days after the storm hit the Gulf Coast. What had been essentially an even division on Bush's response is now disapproval by a 10-point margin.
More, 62 percent, rate the overall federal response negatively, up 11 points from initial public attitudes. Sixty-three percent say that two weeks after the hurricane hit, the administration still lacks a clear plan on how to handle it; rather than recovering its footing, the administration has lost eight points on this measure since Sept. 2. And three- quarters of Americans favor a 9/11-commission style investigation of the hurricane response, apart from anything Congress might be planning.
There may be repercussions as well for administration policy on taxes: Nearly six in 10 Americans say consideration of tax cuts should be set aside for the time being.
RACE - The survey also finds a profound division between black and white Americans in their perceptions of the disaster response. Blacks overwhelmingly say hurricane preparedness and response were shortchanged because of the race and poverty of many of those affected, and call it a sign of broader racial inequality in this country. Whites are far less likely to see it that way.
Seven in 10 blacks, for instance, believe New Orleans would have received better flood protection and emergency preparedness resources if it had been a wealthier, whiter city, rather than a largely poor, African-American one. Fewer than three in 10 whites agree.
Similarly, 76 percent of blacks think the federal government would have responded more quickly to rescue people trapped by floodwaters if more of them had been wealthy and white rather than poorer and black. Fewer than a quarter of whites share that view.
And among blacks, fewer but still a sizable majority, 63 percent, think problems with the hurricane relief effort are an indication of broader racial inequality. Among whites, a quarter agree.
There's the further issue of perceptions of Bush's own empathy. Sixty-eight percent of blacks think he doesn't care about the problems facing black people in this country; among whites, that declines to 28 percent. And even more blacks - 88 percent, more than in any other group - say Bush doesn't understand the problems of people like them.
PARTISANSHIP - On explicitly racial issues, views depend heavily on racial perspectives. On broader political issues, though, it's partisanship that counts the most (and blacks are the most loyal Democratic voting bloc).
Overall, for example, 84 percent of blacks disapprove of Bush's job performance, and 69 percent disapprove strongly - but those ratings are essentially no different than they've been all year, and are much the same among black and white Democrats alike. Similarly, seven in 10 Republicans approve of the president's performance on Katrina, compared with only 22 percent of Democrats - with white and black Democrats again in general agreement.
Putting some blame on the victims is another area, and a less explicitly political one, in which differences are more partisan than racial. This poll asked what was a bigger problem - that some people stayed in the hurricane's path because they didn't take the warnings seriously, or that some people had no way to leave and the government failed to provide transportation. Six in 10 Republicans say it was the former; six in 10 Democrats say the latter, with similar views among black and white Democrats alike.
Anger at the government's response also is more partisan than racial. Just over six in 10 Democrats are angry about it, regardless of their race, compared with just under a quarter of Republicans.
MOVE AWAY - The move away from Bush since Sept. 2, though, has occurred across the board. Disapproval of his handling of the hurricane aftermath has gained five points among Republicans, seven points among independents and six points among Democrats.
And again, as with his overall job rating, the intensity on Katrina has moved against Bush. The number of people who disapprove strongly of his response has gained eight points since Sept. 2, while the number who strongly approve is flat.
Rather than a switch in views, today's negative attitudes on Bush's response to Katrina look to have come from those who previously were undecided. All the same, 64 percent of Americans remain "hopeful" about the federal response, the same as on Sept. 2; fewer, 45 percent, are "angry" about it, also unchanged.
PERSONAL - Bush's personal ratings - for leadership, ability to handle a crisis and empathy - may be as big a concern to the administration as his job performance ratings. Personal good will can act as a kind of political cartilage, protecting a president when times get tough. Bush's, though, is wearing thin.
Before now, on average across his presidency, 66 percent of Americans have perceived Bush as a strong leader. Today it's 50 percent. An average of 61 percent have said he can be trusted in a crisis; it's 49 percent now. Projecting empathy has been more of a challenge for Bush; on average across his presidency, 46 percent have said he understands their problems. But it's 38 percent now.
Only among three groups - Republicans, evangelical white Protestants and conservatives - do majorities say Bush understands their problems. As noted, among blacks, 88 percent say he doesn't, the most of any group.
BLAME GAME? - There's also vast partisanship on whether the administration has been willing to accept or is seeking to avoid responsibility for problems in the hurricane response. Seventy-nine percent of Republicans take the former view; 72 percent of Democrats, the latter. The result is about an even split overall.
More generally, most Americans, 56 percent, say most of the criticism of the hurricane response has been fair. But there's also broad perception of unseemly partisanship from the Democratic side: Six in 10 say Democrats who criticize the administration's response are mainly seeking political advantage, rather than trying to find out what went wrong.
These views are one reason the public so broadly supports an independent commission's investigation of the response; more than seven in 10 think a congressional inquiry will get bogged down in partisan politics. Indeed in a rare example of bipartisanship, an independent commission is backed by majorities of Republicans, independents and Democrats alike - 64 percent, 79 percent and 83 percent, respectively.
It should be noted that there's plenty of blame to go around: Americans rate the state and local governments' response to the hurricane as negatively as the federal government's. And 57 percent say state and local officials deserve blame for the response, which is substantially more than the 45 percent who say Bush personally deserves blame.
A key reason for the difference is that many Republicans join in the criticism of state and local officials, but not of Bush. Somewhat more Democrats, on the other hand, blame Bush than blame state and local authorities.
PERFORMANCE - Not all views of the Katrina response have grown more negative: This survey finds a 10-point gain in positive ratings of the federal government's efforts to evacuate and resettle evacuees, from 38 percent Sept. 2 to 48 percent now.
That's still just about a 50-50 performance score, though, which is about the same as ratings of the efforts to deliver food, water and medical care. Neither does the government get good grades on its effort to clear and repair the damage (44 percent positive), to recover and identify the dead (40 percent positive) or, most strikingly, to deal with spiraling gasoline prices (just 20 percent positive).
Rating federal efforts to: Excellent/Good Not good/poor
Respond overall 38% 62
Deliver food, water, med. care 48 51
Evacuate/resettle 48 50
Clear/repair damage 44 50
Recover/identify bodies 40 53
Deal with gas prices 20 78
There's concern, too, with another aspect of the relief effort - whether or not the federal government has put in place adequate controls to prevent waste and fraud. Fifty-four percent are not confident that it has done so, with those who are "not at all" confident outnumbering those who are very confident by more than 3-1.