[lbo-talk] German election: the markets won't like this

Bill Bartlett billbartlett at dodo.com.au
Sun Sep 18 19:31:49 PDT 2005


At 4:45 PM -0400 18/9/05, Chuck wrote:


> 598 Bundestag seats means 300 seats are needed to form a
>coalition. The reasonable theoritical combinations that get you
>there are:
>
> 1) CDU, SPD (432) <== the "Grand Coalition" for the lovers of the WTO.
> 2) CDU,FDP,Greens (333) <== Only if the Greens can't wait to be
>known by the color of American money!
> 3) CDU,FDP,Left (336) <== Can you spell "DYSFUNCTIONAL"!
> 4) SPD,FDP,Greens (325) <== The FDP has ruled out any coalition
>with the SPD
> 5) SPD,Greens,Left (315)<== Probably the next most likely
>possibility after a Grand Coalition.

Have you simply overlooked the possibility of a minority government, or do you have some reason for rejecting it as even a theoretical possibility?

For instance, it strikes me that when the FDP says it "has ruled out any coalition with the SPD", this is not at all the same as saying that the FDP has rejected the possibility of allowing an SPD/Greens coalition to govern without a parliamentary majority.

Is this just an example of American ignorance of the mechanics of parliamentary democracy, or do you have some reason to reject these other possibilities?

Bill Bartlett Bracknell Tas



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