I. 4GW and the Israeli-Hezbollah war: Your suggestion that 4GW will be adopted by Israel's neighboring states in reponse to its aggressive military policies indicates a degree of confusion concerning the significance of this kind of warfare. ----snip ----
[WS:]
I like your analysis a lot. It offers a healthy dose of realism as an antidote to idealistic wishful thinking. The force has always been with those with the material and organizational resources rather than with the occasionally enthusiastic but otherwise disorganized "streets." There is no reason to believe that this will change in the foreseeable future.
Yet, there is a broader issue that such narrowly focused on strategy analyses often miss - the cost/benefit balance of war, as well as its opportunity cost. That is to say, the IDF will most likely prevail over their opponents in this (and for that matter future) engagement, but is that victory worth the price the Israeli society will pay for it, and can the same goal be achieved at a lower cost?
I understand that nationalistically minded types would reply that no price is too high for national sovereignty and security - but such an answer is nothing but a right wing canard designed to obfuscate the basic fact that there almost always are alternative means of achieving the same end, and those different means carry very different sticker prices. So the real question is not whether the IDF is prevailing in the battlefield, but whether the society as a whole is gaining a real value from that battle, or it is simply being taken for a ride.
I am not arguing that wars always produce disutility, and its objectives can be achieved by alternative peaceful means. I view it as an empirical question rather than a given. My argument is that the question of utility and efficiency of this particular means to an end is seldom if ever considered, let alone answered when the nationalistic fervor sets in.
I also understand that the Bush administration gets quite a good value from the current hostilities at a real bargain - assaulting Iran by proxy is priceless, for all those extra jets, laser guided missiles, and military aid there is always Mastercard. I am not sure, however, what the Israeli society will get for what it pays for the war - or even whether that question is even seriously considered. I also have a feeling that the current hostilities in Lebanon will lead to a Pyrrhic victory for Israel (as it has in the past.)
Wojtek