MIAMI HERALD POLL | THE MIDDLE EAST Conflict reveals partisan split A Miami Herald poll found Republicans more likely than Democrats to support Israel's actions in the Middle East conflict.
BY MARC CAPUTO
Even when it comes to the bombing of Beirut, there's a partisan divide in Florida, where more than half of Democratic voters -- but only a quarter of Republicans -- say Israel has gone too far in its campaign, according to a Miami Herald poll.
The split is even more pronounced among those who say Israel hasn't done enough damage in response to Hezbollah's kidnapping and missile attacks from southern Lebanon, with 19 percent of Republicans saying the Israeli response should be harsher, compared with 5 percent of Democrats, according to the poll of 1,007 likely Republican and Democratic voters conducted for the newspaper by Zogby International.
Amid the differences of opinion, Republicans see a chance to chip away at a base of the Democratic Party: Jewish voters, who tend to favor pro-Israeli policies.
''There's certainly a political opportunity here,'' said veteran Republican strategist Roger Stone. ``There was a time when Republicans couldn't get a Jewish vote. And that has changed as the Democratic Party has become more isolationist and the Bush administration has moved closer to Israel.''
The dividends of the Republican effort to peel off Jewish -- particularly Orthodox Jewish -- votes was clear between 2000 and 2004, when Bush improved his share of the vote by 30 percent in targeted South Florida Jewish precincts, according to a new book, One Party Country: The Republican Plan for Dominance in the 21st Century.
For Dan Gelber, the Florida House's incoming Democratic leader from Miami Beach, there's no need to panic: he points out that the vast majority of Jews still vote Democratic. Though 54 percent of Democrats oppose the amount of bombing, Gelber said he needs to make sure that his party doesn't forsake its base.
''It's up to Democratic leaders who care about Israel to make sure my party understands the importance of Israel and counters some of the media hype that impacts short-term poll numbers,'' Gelber said.
The poll shows a closer opinion margin among those who say the bombing campaign is just right: 39 percent of Republicans and 27 percent of Democrats, with 17 percent and 14 percent unsure, respectively. The poll's margin of error is 4.5 percentage points.
Gelber also noted that poll numbers often hinge on ``what pictures are on television that night.''
Indeed, according to a Thursday Los Angeles Times poll concerning attitudes toward the conflict, Americans were more likely to favor an active U.S.-led peaceful solution as the conflict became more bloody. That poll also showed a partisan divide, with more Republicans than Democrats aligning with Israel's response.
To date, 860 Lebanese have been killed compared with 65 Israelis, according to the countries' embassy websites.
Gelber said the bloodshed from Iraq might also be creating a ''spillover effect'' among Democrats, who are suffering so much ''Iraq fatigue'' that they're linking the conflicts.
The Miami Herald poll clearly shows this difference, with 73 percent of Democrats saying they're ''strongly opposed'' to the Iraq War, compared with 45 percent of Republicans, who ''strongly support'' the war. Only 31 percent of Republicans ''somewhat support'' the war, while 14 percent of Democrats ''somewhat oppose'' it.
Iraq aside, the poll shows that support for Israel is strongest in South Florida among Republicans and Democrats. Among Republicans, North Floridians are the most opposed to the level of the bombing campaign. Among Democrats, opposition runs strongest along the Interstate 4 corridor.
For Arab-American Republicans such as Khaled Suffari, the poll numbers come as no surprise. He said Arabs and Muslims are less politically active and have found it almost impossible to make it into Republican circles ever since Sept. 11. Beyond partisan strategy and ethnicity, Suffari said, there's another reason for such strong Republican support of Israel.
''It's the Fox News syndrome,'' Suffari said of the cable news channel. ``Republicans watch it and it's like brainwashing. The coverage of the bombing of Lebanon is more fair on Israeli television than it is on Fox.''