In this issue: 1) The P5+1 Proposal: What's in it for Iran? 2) Group Says Iran Is 'Not A Crisis' 3) Iran 'will discuss nuclear halt' 4) Ray Close: The Building War on Iran 5) Fearing Prosecution, Bush Admin Tries to Change War Crimes Act 6) Number of Civilian Deaths Highest in July, Iraqis Say 7) Rebuilding Lebanon's shattered economy 8) Israeli army chief under attack over share sell-off 9) Not all nations welcome in Lebanon force-Israel source 10) In Congress, Lonely on Lebanon 11) As Israel Begins to Pull Troops Out, Lebanon and the U.N. Prepare to Replace Them 12) U.N. Peace Efforts Threatened 13) Israel Plans to Remain in Lebanon Until Force Arrives 14) Hezbollah Leads Work to Rebuild, Gaining Stature 15) Policy: Bush Said to Be Frustrated by Level of Public Support in Iraq 16) Mexico Election Protesters Vow 'Siege'
Contents: 1) The P5+1 Proposal: What's in it for Iran? Gareth Porter National Iranian American Council website August 15, 2006 http://www.niacouncil.org/pressreleases/press417.asp#_ftnref3 If Iran insists on negotiating revisions to the P5+1 package proposal given to Iran on June 5, should that be viewed as the end the diplomatic process? That is how Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has framed the issue, and most comment in the media has supported that view. But very few commentators are familiar with the actual content of the P5+1 proposal, which was not released to the public when it was given to Iran. A careful reading of the proposal, now available on the French foreign ministry website, reveals a fundamental problem: it fails to offer Iran even the potential for the kind of security benefits that might be expected to accompany the demands that the same proposal makes on Iran.
2) Group Says Iran Is 'Not A Crisis' Former generals and officials seek to prevent an attack on suspected nuclear sites and to overhaul policies toward Tehran and Baghdad. Peter Spiegel Los Angeles Times August 16, 2006 http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/la-na-generals16aug16,1,4556797.story Seeking to counter the White House's depiction of its Middle East policies as crucial to the prevention of terrorist attacks at home, 21 former generals, diplomats and national security officials will release an open letter tomorrow arguing that the administration's "hard line" has actually undermined U.S. security. Retired Army Lt. Gen. Robert Gard said the group was particularly concerned about administration policies toward Iran, believing them to be a possible prelude to a military attack on suspected nuclear sites in that country. Gard said the signatories did not believe that Iran had the wherewithal to build a nuclear weapon in the immediate future and would push the administration to open negotiations with Tehran on the issue. "It's not a crisis," Gard said. "To call the Iranian situation a 'crisis' connotes you have to do something right now, like bomb them." He noted that Iran had sought to open negotiations with the U.S. through Swiss intermediaries, efforts that the letter-signers said were worth exploring as a means of defusing tensions in the region.
3) Iran 'will discuss nuclear halt' BBC News 2006/08/16 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4797827.stm Iran is ready to discuss the suspension of its uranium enrichment programme as demanded by Western powers, the country's foreign minister has said. Manouchehr Mottaki told a news conference that Iran was ready to talk but still regarded any suspension of its programme as "illogical". A package of incentives has been offered to Iran by six world powers in return for a halt to its programme. Tehran has said it will respond to the offer by 22 August. "We are ready to discuss all the issues, including the suspension. There is no logic behind the suspension of Iran's activities. We are ready to explain this to them," Mr Mottaki said.
4) The Building War on Iran Ray Close, retired CIA analyst Informed Comment (Juan Cole's blog) August 16, 2006 http://www.juancole.com Despite vehement official assertions to the contrary, indications are increasing every day that the Bush Administration has already decided that conventional diplomacy will fail as a way to manage its confrontation with Iran, and that military action against the Teheran regime has therefore already reached the point of final countdown.
5) Fearing Prosecution, Bush Admin Tries to Change War Crimes Act Democracy Now Wednesday, August 16th, 2006 http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=06/08/16/148250 The White House recently proposed changes to the War Crimes Act that would narrow the scope of punishable offenses under the Geneva Conventions. The new list would exclude humiliating or degrading treatment of prisoners. We host a debate with attorneys Scott Horton, adjunct law professor at Columbia University and the former chair of the Committee on International Human Rights at the City Bar Association in New York; and David Rivkin, partner in the Washington office of Baker & Hostetler. He served in the Department of Justice and the White House in the Reagan and George HW Bush Administrations.
6) Number of Civilian Deaths Highest in July, Iraqis Say Edward Wong And Damien Cave New York Times August 16, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/16/world/middleeast/16iraq.html July appears to have been the deadliest month of the war for Iraqi civilians, according to figures from the Health Ministry and the Baghdad morgue, reinforcing criticism that the Baghdad security plan started in June by the new government has failed. An average of more than 110 Iraqis were killed each day in July, according to the figures. The total number of civilian deaths that month, 3,438, is a 9 percent increase over the tally in June and nearly double the toll in January. The rising numbers suggested that sectarian violence is spiraling out of control, and seemed to bolster an assertion many senior Iraqi officials and American military analysts have made in recent months: that the country is already embroiled in a civil war. The numbers also provide the most definitive evidence yet that the Baghdad security plan started by Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki on June 14 has not quelled the violence.
7) Rebuilding Lebanon's shattered economy Jorn Madslien BBC News 2006/08/15 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4794739.stm Throughout the conflict, a string of world leaders have vowed to help once the fighting had stopped - not only with humanitarian aid but also by helping pay for restructuring efforts. Now they will be asked to put their money where their mouths were. Tunisia's president has called for an emergency summit of Arab leaders, urging collective support for the rebuilding of the war-torn country. And Sweden has organised a donor conference on 31 August, which some 60 countries and aid agencies are expected to attend. Much of the $50 billion injected into the country during the past decade to rebuild after the 1975-1989 civil war was spent on roads and power lines, schools and sport centres, hospitals and airports. Many of these are now in ruins. The Lebanese government estimates the infrastructure damage alone could amount to US$2.5 billion. Lebanon's economy ministry says about one in five of the country's million or so refugees have been rendered homeless by the war, and estimates that the total cost of the damage to houses might even be greater than it was during the civil war. Lebanon will find it increasingly hard to service its $35 billion debts. The government had been planning economic reforms including the privatisation of its power and telecoms sectors, tax rises and a tighter grip on the government's purse strings. These plans may now have to be shelved.
8) Israeli army chief under attack over share sell-off http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=L1599689 Israeli army chief under attack over share sell-off Tue 15 Aug 2006 8:11 AM ET Israel's armed forces chief, Lieutenant-General Dan Halutz, came under political fire on Tuesday after a newspaper reported he sold off a stock portfolio just hours after Hizbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers in a raid that triggered a month-long war. The Maariv daily said Halutz went to his bank branch and sold shares worth 120,000 shekels ($27,460) three hours after the soldiers were seized by the Lebanese guerrilla group on July 12. Key share indexes in Israel fell around 12 percent at the outset of fighting between Israeli forces and Hizbollah after the abduction. Share prices gradually recovered and now stand slightly below pre-war levels. "It is true that I sold the portfolio on July 12 but it is impossible to link that to the war. At the time, I did not expect or think there would be a war," he said, according to Maariv. [Note: Seymour Hersh's article reported that the plan to invade Lebanon was already set before the abduction and it had been agreed that it would be launched on the next provocation. This is consistent with reporting by the San Francisco Chronicle. Thus, the claim by Halutz, who by all accounts was the prime motor of the war in the Israeli political establishment, that he did not expect a war or think there was going to be one, after Hizbullah had provided the anticipated pretext, is highly implausible. -JFP] A day after the abduction, Israeli aircraft carried out a major attack in Lebanon, bombing runways at Beirut airport. Several legislators responded to the report by demanding Israel's attorney-general open an investigation. One lawmaker called for Halutz's resignation.
9) Not all nations welcome in Lebanon force-Israel source Reuters Wed 16 Aug 2006 9:57 AM ET http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=L16617052 Israel has told the United Nations that it will oppose the inclusion of troops from countries such as Malaysia in a planned U.N. force for southern Lebanon, a senior Israeli official said Wednesday. "Israel has informed the U.N. in no uncertain terms that it will not accept any countries in the force that do not have diplomatic relations with Israel," the official said. Objections from Israel could complicate efforts by the United Nations to quickly assemble a force for southern Lebanon to enforce a ceasefire between Israel and Hizbollah that took effect on Monday. Malaysia and Indonesia have each offered to send 1,000 troops to Lebanon. They have no diplomatic ties with Israel and strongly support the Palestinian cause. The EU's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, over the weekend listed Malaysia and Indonesia among the non-EU countries prepared to join the international force. Asked about Malaysia and Indonesia joining the force, Israel's foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, said on Sunday: "We are not going to say that there are some states that we believe shouldn't be part of these forces." But the senior Israeli official said Israel's position had changed."Some of the countries that have volunteered have cooperated with Hizbollah," the senior Israeli official said, declining to offer any details.
10) In Congress, Lonely on Lebanon Dana Milbank Washington Post Wednesday, August 16, 2006; A02 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/15/AR2006081501015.html Since the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah started, 22 members of Congress have flown to Israel. Only one went to Lebanon. "Logistically, it was difficult," Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), the lone Lebanon traveler, explained. "The Israelis were shooting at vehicles and so on." One of five Lebanese Americans in Congress, Issa occupies a no man's land in U.S. politics: a conservative Republican with a powerful sympathy for the Arab cause. He supports the Iraq war and voted for a resolution backing Israel in its fight with Hezbollah, but he has also accused Israel of "apartheid" and scolds the Bush administration for "missed opportunities" to win Arab friends. Al-Jazeera propagandists ridicule him, and the radical Jewish Defense League tried to bomb his office after a WorldNetDaily.com commentator dubbed him "Jihad Darrell." Yesterday, he was at the National Press Club, giving a bleak slide show from his trip to Lebanon, and scolding all parties in the conflict. He condemned Israel's "wanton" violation of Lebanese territory and its "somewhat failed attempt" to defeat Hezbollah: "You can't end an idea or a terrorist organization by guns alone." He disparaged the "few million dollars" the United States gave Lebanon after last year's eviction of its Syrian masters: "The Cedar Revolution was our opportunity, our opportunity to seize, and we did not." The congressman calls for a "dramatic difference" in aid to Lebanon in the form of a supplemental spending bill.
11) As Israel Begins to Pull Troops Out, Lebanon and the U.N. Prepare to Replace Them Steven Erlanger New York Times August 16, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/16/world/middleeast/16mideast.html Israel began to pull many of its reserve troops out of southern Lebanon on Tuesday and hopes to be out of the country altogether in the next week or 10 days, said the military chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz. The Lebanese Army, which is supposed to join with a strengthened UN force to establish order as the Israelis withdraw, is expected to begin moving into the area south of the Litani River in a couple of days, supported by an early deployment of foreign troops, said Jean-Marie Guéhenno, the French head of UN peacekeeping forces. At the UN, Hedi Annabi, the assistant secretary general for peacekeeping, said he hoped for an initial deployment of up to 3,500 troops within 10 to 15 days. But there was no guarantee that the process called for in the Security Council resolution that established a cease-fire would go smoothly. Leaders of Hezbollah have said that their men will not be disarmed, as called for in the resolution, and that the deployment of the Lebanese Army in the south needs further discussion inside the government. The cease-fire itself is considered fragile. Israel killed at least three Hezbollah fighters inside Lebanon on Tuesday after killing six on Monday, and Hezbollah fired some rockets at Israeli positions. The Hezbollah leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, has said his forces will not stop fighting until all Israeli troops leave Lebanon, and the Israelis say their current positions will allow them to continue their advance if necessary.
12) U.N. Peace Efforts Threatened Countries Urgently Needed to Aid in Lebanon, World Body Says Colum Lynch Washington Post Wednesday, August 16, 2006; A09 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/15/AR2006081501161.html U.N. and U.S. officials warned Tuesday that governments that have pledged to assemble a peacekeeping force for southern Lebanon are not moving swiftly enough to fill a dangerous power vacuum there. Four days after the Security Council authorized 15,000 U.N. peacekeepers to help the Lebanese army intervene between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters, not one country has formally committed to sending troops. Senior U.N. officials said that while many countries have expressed interest in participating, key powers such as France, Italy, Turkey and others must commit to a vanguard force of as many as 3,500 peacekeepers within two weeks to avert a resumption of violence. "I think the next few days are still indeed quite dangerous," Jean-Marie Guehenno, a French national who heads the U.N. peacekeeping department, said Tuesday. France, which has been asked to provide the "backbone" of a new force, has expressed "some hesitancy" about committing to lead it before knowing which other countries will serve, a senior U.N. official said. But other countries will not sign on until France agrees to lead the operation.
13) Israel Plans to Remain in Lebanon Until Force Arrives Steven Erlanger New York Times August 16, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/16/world/middleeast/16cnd-mideast.html Israeli troops will remain in southern Lebanon until a multinational force is deployed there, even if it takes months, the military chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz, said today. General Halutz had said on Tuesday, when Israel started to withdraw troops, that there were hopes that all of them would be out of Lebanon in the next week or 10 days. Today, he said Israel will keep troops in the area "until the multinational force arrives, even if that takes months." He also said that Israel will stop withdrawing from southern Lebanon if the Lebanese army fails to deploy within days. That may have an impact on the fragility of the ceasefire, now in its third day. The Hezbollah leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, has said his forces will not stop fighting until all Israeli troops leave Lebanon, and the Israelis say their current positions will allow them to continue their advance if necessary.
14) Hezbollah Leads Work to Rebuild, Gaining Stature John Kifner New York Times August 16, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/16/world/middleeast/16hezbollah.html As stunned Lebanese returned Tuesday over broken roads to shattered apartments in the south, it increasingly seemed that the beneficiary of the destruction was most likely to be Hezbollah. A major reason, in addition to its hard-won reputation as the only Arab force that fought Israel to a standstill, is that it is already dominating the efforts to rebuild with a torrent of money from oil-rich Iran. Nehme Tohme, a member of Parliament from the anti-Syrian reform bloc and the country's minister for the displaced, said he had been told by Hezbollah officials that when the shooting stopped, Iran would provide Hezbollah with an "unlimited budget" for reconstruction. In his victory speech on Monday night, Hezbollah's leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, offered money for "decent and suitable furniture" and a year's rent on a house to any Lebanese who lost his home in the month-long war. "Completing the victory," he said, "can come with reconstruction."
15) Bush Said to Be Frustrated by Level of Public Support in Iraq August 16, 2006 Thom Shanker And Mark Mazzetti New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/16/washington/16policy.html President Bush made clear in a private meeting this week that he was concerned about the lack of progress in Iraq and frustrated that the new Iraqi government and the Iraqi people had not shown greater public support for the American mission, participants in the meeting said Tuesday. "I sensed a frustration with the lack of progress on the bigger picture of Iraq generally - that we continue to lose a lot of lives, it continues to sap our budget," said one attendee. More generally, the participants said, the president expressed frustration that Iraqis had not come to appreciate the sacrifices the US had made in Iraq, and was puzzled as to how a recent anti-American rally in support of Hezbollah in Baghdad could draw such a large crowd. "I do think he was frustrated about why 10,000 Shiites would go into the streets and demonstrate against the US," said another attendee. One participant said Bush expressed the view that "the Shia-led government needs to clearly and publicly express the same appreciation for US efforts and sacrifices as they do in private." Eric Davis, a Rutgers University political science professor, said he urged the creation of more jobs for younger Iraqis, and proposed a major reconstruction fund to be underwritten by Saudi Arabia and other Arab oil states seeking regional stability. Mr. Davis took issue with the administration's order to remove Baath Party members from public service, and he urged the hiring of more qualified Baathists in Iraq or living abroad, and inviting retired army officers back into service.
16) Mexico Election Protesters Vow 'Siege' Ioan Grillo The Associated Press Tuesday, August 15, 2006; 9:40 PM http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/15/AR2006081501168.html Supporters of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador pledged Tuesday to place conservative Felipe Calderon "under siege" if he is declared the winner of the disputed presidential elections. Supporters of Calderon meanwhile accused Lopez Obrador of wanting to make blood flow in the conflict. The heightened rhetoric came one day after the first violent incident in a month of protests police saw protesters clash with police outside the Congress building in Mexico City; the leftists plan another march on Congress on Sept. 1, and also plan to continue blockading some streets in Mexico City through Sept. 16, the date of the traditional Independence Day parade. "He will be a president under siege ... he will not be able to operate outside his office," Gerardo Fernandez, spokesman for Lopez Obrador's Democratic Revolution Party, said. Lopez Obrador has said he "will not accept" Calderon as president. He claims the race was marred by fraud and has demanded a full recount, and his supporters tried to set up a protest camp outside Congress on Monday to press that demand. When police tried to remove protesters, some resisted or attacked police, and about 8 demonstrators - including at least two lawmakers - were slightly injured in the confrontation. Fernandez said protesters will again try to march on Congress on Sept. 1, when President Vicente Fox is scheduled to deliver his last state-of-the-nation address, and promised the day "will not be a picnic" for the president.
-------- Robert Naiman Just Foreign Policy www.justforeignpolicy.org