It's up to Iran's working people to judge whether Iran's economic glass since August 2005 has been half full or half empty, whether they think their conditions will improve under the Rafsanjani and/or reformist faction, and so on.
You've paid attention to how BBC pronounces the names of foreign leaders. You ever pay attention to what a lot of neoliberal Iranians call Ahmadinejad? "Arab-parast" President. "Arab-parast" means Arab-worshipper.
With the reformist faction and/or the Rafsanjani faction back in power at the national level, Iran's foreign policy will be different. If the price of American friendship were ditching Hamas, Hizballah, etc., they would be happy to, whereas Ahmadinejad's faction wouldn't be.
An Iranian government driven by the reformist and/or Rafsanjani faction might work with Washington to get rid of Moktada al-Sadr and the Mahdi Army, too, as they are closer to Abdul Aziz al-Hakim than Ahmadinejad's faciton or Ali Khamenei for that matter is: <http://www.juancole.com/2003/10/iranian-factions-divided-on-which.html> <http://www.juancole.com/2003/11/khatami-recognizes-igc-according-to.html>.
[That all depends on Washington's offer, too, since Washington, owing to its commitments to Israel and Saudi Arabia, might not let Iran's would-be sellouts to sell out even if they wanted to.]
Washington certainly looks like it's gearing up to eliminate Sadr.
<blockquote><http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/12/world/middleeast/12iraq.html> December 12, 2006 Iraqis Consider Ways to Reduce Power of Cleric By EDWARD WONG
BAGHDAD, Dec. 11 — After discussions with the Bush administration, several of Iraq's major political parties are in talks to form a coalition whose aim is to break the powerful influence of the radical Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr within the government, senior Iraqi officials say.
The talks are taking place among the two main Kurdish groups, the most influential Sunni Arab party and an Iranian-backed Shiite party that has long sought to lead the government. They have invited Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki to join them. But Mr. Maliki, a conservative Shiite who has close ties to Mr. Sadr, has held back for fear that the parties might be seeking to oust him, a Shiite legislator close to Mr. Maliki said.
Officials involved in the talks say their aim is not to undermine Mr. Maliki, but to isolate Mr. Sadr as well as firebrand Sunni Arab politicians inside the government. Mr. Sadr controls a militia with an estimated 60,000 fighters that has rebelled twice against the American military and is accused of widening the sectarian war with reprisal killings of Sunni Arabs.
The Americans, frustrated with Mr. Maliki's political dependence on Mr. Sadr, appear to be working hard to help build the new coalition. President Bush met last week in the White House with Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of the Iranian-backed Shiite party, and is to meet on Tuesday with Tariq al-Hashemi, leader of the Sunni Arab party. In late November, Mr. Bush and his top aides met with leaders from Sunni countries in the Middle East to urge them to press moderate Sunni Arab Iraqis to support Mr. Maliki.
The White House visits by Mr. Hakim and Mr. Hashemi are directly related to their effort to form a new alliance, a senior Iraqi official said.
Last month, Mr. Bush's national security adviser, Stephen J. Hadley, wrote in a classified memo that the Americans should press Sunni Arab and Shiite leaders, especially Mr. Hakim, to support Mr. Maliki if he sought to build "an alternative political base." The memo noted that Americans could provide "monetary support to moderate groups."
Iraqi officials involved in the talks said they had conceived of the coalition themselves after growing frustrated with militant politicians.
"A number of key political parties, across the sectarian-ethnic divide, recognize the gravity of the situation and have become increasingly aware that their fate, and that of the country, cannot be held hostage by the whims of the extreme fringe within their communities," said Barham Salih, a deputy prime minister and senior member of one of the major Kurdish parties.
Mr. Sadr's relationship with Mr. Maliki has shown signs of strain. On Nov. 30, Mr. Sadr withdrew his 30 loyalists in Parliament and 6 cabinet ministers from the government. Mr. Maliki called for them to return, but they said they would do so only if Mr. Maliki and the Americans set a timetable for the withdrawal of American troops. Mr. Sadr reiterated the demand with a fiery message on Sunday.
Any plan to form a political alliance across sectarian lines that isolates Mr. Sadr and Sunni Arab extremists carries enormous risks. American and Iraqi officials have worked to try to persuade Mr. Sadr to use political power instead of force of arms to effect change. Though it is unclear whether Mr. Sadr has total control over his militia, if he thinks he is being marginalized within the government, he could ignite another rebellion like the two he led in 2004.
Some senior American commanders say that the efforts to make peace with Mr. Sadr through politics may have failed, and that a military assault on Sadr strongholds may be inevitable.
Falah Shanshal, a legislator aligned with Mr. Sadr, on Monday denounced the idea of a new coalition. "We're against any new bloc, new front or new alliance," he said. "We have to make unity between us, to be one front against terrorism and to liberate the country from the occupation."
Iraqi officials say that the other main risk is a potential backlash against the parties involved in the talks from other leaders in their own ethnic or sectarian populations.
For Mr. Hakim and Mr. Maliki, any bid to join Sunni Arabs in an alliance against Mr. Sadr could invoke the wrath of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most powerful Shiite cleric in Iraq. Since the toppling of Saddam Hussein, the ayatollah has worked hard to bring various feuding Shiite factions into one greater Shiite coalition to rule Iraq. That coalition, including Mr. Sadr's allies, is the dominant bloc in the 275-member Parliament.
Mr. Hashemi, the Sunni Arab leader, risks alienating other members of the main Sunni bloc in Parliament. Sunni Arab insurgents could also decide to step up violence against Mr. Hashemi and his Iraqi Islamic Party. Three of Mr. Hashemi's siblings have already been killed.
Sunni Arab politicians not involved in the talks said they were furious at the proposed alliance.
Because of those risks, Iraqi officials are still debating whether to try to create the alliance within Parliament or to do so outside Parliament, so that the existing coalitions would be preserved in name. An alliance formed outside Parliament might work with Mr. Maliki's cabinet to make policy and bypass the legislature on important decisions.
"There's no changing of blocs in the Parliament," said Sheik Jalaladin al-Saghir, a senior Shiite legislator and cleric who is one of Mr. Hakim's deputies. "We're talking about political forces rallying in the street to support the political process."
The parties involved in the talks fall short of being able to muster a two-thirds vote in Parliament to oust Mr. Maliki and install a new government, as required by the Constitution. If they pulled in other groups, like the centrist secular party headed by Ayad Allawi, the former prime minister, they might be able to get the required votes — a possibility, since they describe themselves as moderates.
If the parties move to replace Mr. Maliki as prime minister, one possible candidate would be Mr. Hakim's deputy, Adel Abdul Mehdi, who was favored by the White House last spring to take the top job. He lost out when Mr. Sadr, whose family has long feuded with Mr. Hakim's, threw his support behind Mr. Maliki's group, the Islamic Dawa Party, in a vote within the Shiite coalition.
The parties trying to form the new alliance approached Mr. Maliki a couple of days ago to ask him to join them, said the Shiite legislator who is close to the prime minister. Senior officials in the Islamic Dawa Party balked, saying that such a move would break the Shiite coalition, anger Ayatollah Sistani and possibly pave the way for Mr. Hakim to push Mr. Maliki from his job in favor of Mr. Abdul Mehdi.
"Everyone knows Hakim wants Adel to be prime minister; it's no secret," said the legislator, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss Mr. Maliki's deliberations. "Saying you want to pull Maliki away from the extremists might just be a beautiful cover for the real goal of dropping him."
The political jockeying unfolded as violence continued in Iraq. The country's largest oil refinery, in the town of Bayji, remained shut because of insurgent threats to workers. At least 46 bodies were discovered Monday across Baghdad, an Interior Ministry official said. At least eight Iraqis were killed and more than a dozen wounded in other violent incidents. The American military announced that three soldiers had been killed by a roadside bomb in Baghdad on Sunday.
Also in the capital, 20 gunmen wearing Iraqi Army uniforms robbed a bank truck carrying the equivalent of $1 million.
Abdul Razzaq al-Saiedi and Qais Mizher contributed reporting.</blockquote>
On the other hand, the criminally insane Holocaust revisionist conference in Iran certainly tries my patience. Though I do not want reformists to get in charge of Iran's foreign policy or national economic policy, it would be good for reformists to make a better showing in the municipal elections than they did in the last municipal, parliamentary, and presidential elections, so Ahmadinejad's faction will get the message about the stupidity of giving space to Holocaust revisionism -- especially NOW. Also, reformists' better showing may potentially help weaken the position of "regime change" advocates in Washington, who totally ignore changes in Iran since the early days of the revolution and want to paint Iran as a monolithic totalitarian country where nothing can possibly change from within. -- Yoshie <http://montages.blogspot.com/> <http://mrzine.org> <http://monthlyreview.org/>