I'm asking, from a value-neutral (or amoral) perspective, will it [withdrawing US forces] make them [Iraqis] better off? And if so, how?
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Briefly, for a few weeks after M1s rolled into Baghdad and Cobras buzzed across Iraqi skies, the American military represented -- in dreams, at least -- a nearly all-powerful occupying force, the sharp end of Washington's laser guided spear.
Somewhere in Hades, Augustus smiled.
Now however, after three grinding years, the Pentagon has lost any and all realistic hope of control and is merely one gang among many. True, it has more kill gear at its disposal than the others but we're receiving reports this is wearing out at a pretty rapid clip -
see, for example "Army Equipment After Iraq"
<http://www.americanprogress.org/kf/equipment_shortage.pdf>
and, "Wars wearing down military gear at cost of about $2 billion a month"
<http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-11-28-military-gear_x.htm>
American forces now have three primary missions: shield American facilities from the inevitable deluge, protect each other from attack and perform blood-soaked political theater via ordinance such as the assaults on Fallujah and the pointless anti-Sadrist campaigns.
Not one of these missions dampens the Iraqi civil war (quite the opposite, in fact) except perhaps by providing combatants with a target besides each other.
It's impossible to precisely know what will happen when the Americans leave; no doubt, some things will get worse. Life, it seems, is often little else but a series of hell-bound steps.
Whatever the downsides, a majority of the Iraqi people -- who are, of course, acutely aware of all the potentials -- have decided that the Americans must go.
While I'm far removed from the situation, I think I see the logic: the Americans aren't helping me, in fact, with their tendency to wildly shoot up whole neighborhoods and bomb cities into powder they're another source of danger. If they go -- taking their death toys with them -- I'll only have to contend with groups with similar arms to mine, employing similar tactics. I'll take my chances.
By that rough calculus, an American withdrawl would leave Iraqis' better off even if they'd still be light years away from safety and stability.
.d.