[lbo-talk] politics getting politicized! bear market signal!!!!

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Tue Feb 21 15:30:13 PST 2006


[from having read their stuff in the past I assume that this polarization & anger are symptoms of a bear market of world-historical proportions - but they don't tell you that in this teaser - in any case, an amusing piece of market wisdom here]

<http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=mw*aid=2244*time=pm>

Anger INTO Politics, Not Vice-Versa 2/21/2006 6:03:35 PM

The stock market closed lower on Tuesday (Feb. 21).

*****

A relative indifference toward politics usually characterizes civilized and/or peaceful societies, inasmuch as civilized and peaceful people are usually good at self-government. Experience has proven this to be a good thing, and not only because of Jefferson's truism that the best government governs least.

It's also that apolitical people tend to devote their energies to more important activities: working, inventing, owning, building, family & faith, etc. On the other hand, in societies where too many people are too obsessed with whether they or their party/cronies/henchmen are in (or out of) power, well, the more zealous they become to protect (or overthrow) the powers-that-be.

In keeping with the traditions inherited from English common law, the U.S. Constitution assumes a very high degree of self-government. It didn't rid us of the neurotics and degenerates who say "vote for me," but at least the Constitution helps prevent any one (or group) of them from having too much say over our liberties.

Alas, anyone who's actually read the Constitution or the Federalist Papers in recent decades knows that there's been trouble in paradise for a long time. Yet most of that trouble consisted in the government going beyond its authority (enumerated and otherwise); today, however, even the "relative indifference toward politics" in the U.S. appears to be less true than ever.

Put simply, our politics have become politicized. Today's Wall Street Journal Online notes that "The percentage of people willing to say they are 'extremely liberal' or 'extremely conservative' is higher than it has been in over 30 years." Obviously, "extreme" is the operative word -- what's more, "the data tell us that the people with these strong views often display a disturbing lack of compassion and ethics in their personal relations. As such, angry politics may be spilling over into our broader culture."

No question about the "broader culture", yet there's no "may be" about it. And the anger went from the broader culture into everything else --entertainment, fashion, social issues, political polarization, and, yes, the stock market.

You can understand how and why this psychological trend dominates our social mood. This analysis defines our method, because social mood directs the trends and patterns we follow. It is patterned, recognizable, and predictable.



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