> John Lacny wrote:
> >
> > To be honest, I'm having a hard time believing that
> > there will be an actual war against Iran; even the
> > Bushites are not that stupid or crazy.
>
> I am confident that they _are_ exactly that stupid and/or crazy.
> Did you believe in early 2002 they would invade Iraq? No, wait,
> did you believe they would yank soldiers out of Afghanistan at the
> very moment that bin Laden was pinned down in Tora Bora, thus
> giving the 9/11 criminals a clean getaway, so the soldiers could be
> sent off to prepare for Iraq? After seeing that with my own eyes,
> today I believe that there's literally nothing too stupid or
> treasonous for this Administration to do.
I don't believe that Washington will go to war with Iran now, nor will it in a couple of years (in the fashion it invaded Iraq in 2003 following the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan).
Washington, however, wants to lay a long-term plan (diplomatic, ideological, etc.) to grind down Iran -- to be escalated perhaps a decade from now, if and when Washington succeeds in winding up its Iraqi business by setting up a friendly government (which is probably impossible, but it can't be totally ruled out).
The plan will begin with an IAEA referral to the UN Security Council. Washington's roadmap is an IAEA referral, a UNSC-imposed economic sanctions (which should last a decade or so) combined with occasional missile attacks, and then and only then a full-scale military option. Whether Washington can win a referral, and whether the UN SC will decide to sanction Iran if it receives a referral, etc. are up in the air. Basically, Washington's ability to take the first couple of steps in the roadmap depends on the will of Moscow and Beijing.
Putin, just say Nyet!
Yoshie Furuhashi <http://montages.blogspot.com> <http://monthlyreview.org> <http://mrzine.org>