[lbo-talk] 57% back hit on Iran

Dwayne Monroe idoru345 at yahoo.com
Sat Jan 28 08:54:47 PST 2006


John Lacny:

To be honest, I'm having a hard time believing that there will be an actual war against Iran; even the Bushites are not that stupid or crazy. Or am I just out of touch?

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It's my understanding - and I have to find the corroborating stories - that the Pentagon has run simulations using various scenarios - scaling up from limited air strikes against nuclear facilities (which, from their point of view, would be "surgical" and therefore, small) to a full on invasion.

Unsurprisingly, each simulation ends very badly for all involved (US forces suffering heavy casualties or being destroyed - inevitable escalation to a broader war with wildfire characteristics and other pleasantness).

But of course, that's the Pentagon's view: it's important to recall the professional military wasn't very keen on Iraq for tactically sensible reasons that have been bloodily demonstrated.

The real question is whether or not the civilian "leadership" understands the folly and will refrain from starting what could turn into another world war (not to hyperventilate here but it's very difficult to imagine an assault on Iran not spinning out of control in extraordinarily horrific ways - as War College strategists seem to understand).

In short, I don't think attacking Iran is something the US could 'get away with' in the sense of doing it, and then returning, after a period of inflicted pain and destruction, to making films about how brave we were and watching tear filled interviews on Oprah and yelling about abortion and debating how young women dress and the rest of the all American activities.

.d.

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