Well? Could it? Would it?
GlobalGuerillas: Sunday, January 22, 2006 THE GUERRILLA OIL CARTEL
The control over the price of oil is in now in the hands of global guerrillas -- the open source, system disrupting, transnational crime fueled, sons of global fragmentation covered by this author. These actors can now, at will, curtail the supply of oil through low tech attacks on facilities in Iraq, Nigeria, central Asia, and India. The amount of oil effectively under their control exceeds five million barrels a day, more than Saudi Arabia's two million barrels a day of swing production. http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2006/01/the_guerrilla_o.html
The Thumb On The World's Jugular from Past Peak: World oil production is barely keeping up with demand. There's no spare capacity, no slack in the system. John Robb points out an enormously significant consequence: from here on out, global guerrillas can control the price of oil via relatively... http://www.pastpeak.com/archives/2006/01/the_thumb_on_th.htm
The vulnerability of energy supplies from Clear Thinking: After the recent attacks in Nigeria and Russia on oil and gas pipelines, the possibility of social disruption leading to a new energy crisis moves from dystopic fantasy to looming reality. http://clearthinkblog.blogspot.com/2006/01/vulnerability-of-energy-supplies.html#links
...On to the more immediate (and perhaps more likely) problem: War for More (25% of the world's known supply) Oil...
Gotta have it! All of it!
So, what do the Iranians think of it?
Reuters Courtesy of ChinaDaily http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2006-01/29/content_516337.htm
Iran to use missiles if attacked: Official (Reuters) Updated: 2006-01-29 09:23
Iran would retaliate with medium-range missiles if attacked, a military commander said Saturday, and he accused Britain and the United States of arming rebels within the country.
"If we come under a military attack, we will respond with our very effective missile defense," the leader, Yahya Rahim Safavi, commander in chief of the Revolutionary Guard, told state television.
Technicians work at a uranium processing site in Isfahan, Iran in this March 30, 2005 file photo. The foreign ministers of the U.N. Security Council's five permanent members and Germany will meet in London on Monday to try to agree on how to tackle Iran's nuclear program, the New York Times reported on Wednesday. [Reuters]
The threat came as international pressure has intensified on Tehran to give up its nuclear program. Although Iran insists that its program is strictly for electricity generation, Western countries have accused it of working to build a nuclear bomb. The United States and Israel, in particular, have refused to rule out military strikes if diplomacy fails.
Military experts estimate that Iran's medium-range missile design, the Shahab 3, can strike targets more than 1,200 miles away. That would put Israel, American military bases in the Persian Gulf region, and troops in Iraq within their range. The missiles are directly under the command of the Revolutionary Guard, a parallel military force that answers directly to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Mr. Safavi repeated the Iran's allegations that Britain and the United States were arming rebels in the southwestern province of Khuzestan, which has most of Iran's abundant oil reserves. On Tuesday, bomb explosions killed eight people in Ahwaz, a city in Khuzestan.
"Occupying forces in Iraq, particularly those in the south, provide Iranian agents with material for bombing," he said. "British and U.S. intelligence services should avoid interfering in our affairs."
But the Iranian foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, said Saturday that Tehran was willing to work with Britain to put an end to the violence.
"Iran's security officials have said they are ready to hand over to British officials the documents related to the previous and recent incidents in Ahwaz," Mr. Mottaki told a news conference. "We hope that, by means of constant follow-ups, we reach tangible results that could prevent such events from happening again."
A group fighting for the independence of Iran's Arab minority claimed responsibility for Tuesday's attacks, but the claim could not be verified. #33#
Not Much!
Furthermore, the war drums are beating in other directions that could just as easily involve the use of US troops.
RFE/RFL: http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/1/f7103bce-33f8-4f2d-8890-c5850acf908f.html
Saturday, 28 January 2006
Iran Claims Evidence Of British Involvement In Ahvaz Bombings
28 January 2006 -- Iran said today it would hand over evidence to Britain that proved British involvement in bombings in the southern Iran city of Ahvaz earlier this week.
Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki made the announcement but did not give any further details.
Eight people were killed and 46 were wounded in the blasts, in an oil-rich area in southwestern Iran populated by ethnic Arabs.
Ten people were arrested in connection with the bombings.
The regime immediately blamed Britain for involvement in the explosions. Britain denied that accusation as being completely without foundation.
(dpa)
Addendenum: Guess who all the turmoil benefits the most? Not the proles being bombed! It benefits the same folks who have access to all the Bechtel built(?) fallout shelters... Iran's 'Power Elite'.
New York Times January 29, 2006 The World Guess Who Likes the G.I.'s in Iraq (Look in Iran's Halls of Power) By MICHAEL SLACKMAN
TEHRAN
NOT long after the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq in 2003, a top aide to L. Paul Bremer III, then the head of the American occupation authority there, excitedly explained that Iraq had just become the front line in Washington's effort to neutralize Iran as a regional force.
If America could promote a moderate, democratic, American-friendly alternate center of Shiite Islam in Iraq, the official said, it could defang one of its most implacable foes in the Middle East.
Iran, in other words, had for decades been both the theological center of Shiite Islam and a regional sponsor of militant anti-American Islamic groups like Hezbollah. But if westward-looking Shiites — secular or religious — came to power in southern Iraq, they could give the lie to arguments that Shiites had to see America as an enemy.
So far, though, Iran's mullahs aren't feeling much pain from the Americans next door. In fact, officials at all levels of government here say they see the American presence as a source of strength for themselves as they face the Bush administration.
In almost every conversation about Iran's nuclear showdown with the United States and Europe, they cite the Iraq war as a factor Iran can play to its own advantage.
[More] http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/29/weekinreview/29slackman.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print