In this issue: 1) Israeli Jets Strike Airport in Beirut 2) Iran Defiant After Atomic Case Goes Back to UN 3) Iran Says Will Not Abandon Atomic Rights: TV 4) US Says Israel has Right to Defend Itself 5) Stock Futures Fall, Oil Price Hits Record High 6) Iran Shrugs Off U.N. Council Referral 7) Sign That Crisis Is Regional, Not Just Israel vs. Palestinians 8) Russia and China Inch Toward Iran Sanctions 9) Major Powers Will Return Iran Issue to U.N. Council 10) On Iran, Giving Futility Its Chance 11) Road to Victory in Iraq 'Unclear,' US Auditors Conclude 12) Leftist's Supporters Stream Into Mexican Capital
Summary: Helene Cooper, writing in the New York Times, notes that Iranian President Ahmadinejad has said that, "God willing," Iran would respond to the West's package by late August. The emphasis in the article on the phrase "God willing" seems to suggest that Ms. Cooper believes that the use of the phrase indicates a lack of intentionality. The phrase "God willing" is common in Islamic culture in describing any event that will take place in the future; its use, in itself, provides no evidence of a lack of intentionality on the part of the speaker.
A New York Times editor yesterday defended the paper's characterization of Iran as not having said when it would respond to the West's package of incentives. "Iran has never specified exactly when it would respond to the proposals," the editor wrote to Just Foreign Policy. "At best Iran has offered a vague and imprecise answer. Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said on June 21 that Iran would, 'God willing, give our opinion at the end of' the Iranian month of Mordad, which coincides with Aug. 22. That is how many news organizations interpreted August or late August as a date. But immediately after he said that, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, said a date was not and is not fixed, suggesting that Ahmadinejad's statement was incorrect."
Russia and China joined the United States and Europe on Wednesday in agreeing to seek a United Nations Security Council resolution ordering Iran to freeze some nuclear activities, or face sanctions, the New York Times reports. Though punitive sanctions are in no way certain, agreeing to start down a road that could lead to them is a big step for Moscow and Beijing. The group agreed to seek a Security Council resolution that would make suspension of enrichment mandatory, but said it could stop the Security Council action at any time, provided Iran suspended its uranium enrichment. The list of possible sactions includes travel restrictions on Iranian officials, a ban on cultural exchanges and visas for Iranians, financial restrictions, political sanctions and even an oil embargo, although the latter is seen as highly unlikely and one that could further rattle global markets. The incentives presented to Iran include access to light-water nuclear reactors, support for Tehran's entry into the World Trade Organization, and lifting a ban on selling aircraft and parts to Iran.
Iran said on Thursday it would not abandon its right to nuclear technology after Tehran's case was referred back to the U.N. Security Council in its atomic dispute with the West. "Our answer to the P5+1 package is clear, the Iranian nation abides by international laws and regulations but will not abandon its obvious right to obtain nuclear technology,'' Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said. "We are trying to investigate the proposed package positively,'' Ahmadinejad said, but he repeated that Iran would give its final reply by August 22 despite pressure for a swifter response.
France said world powers would propose a U.N. resolution over Iran's nuclear activities that could include sanctions if Iran did not give them a positive response by mid-August. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said the major powers were not yet considering imposing sanctions on Iran. Analysts say Iran may calculate such divisions mean it is only likely to face modest steps such as travel bans on officials or asset freezes, measures they say Iran may believe it can weather. French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said the six powers had agreed a two-stage process. The first stage would involve passing a U.N. resolution "in a few days'' demanding Iran suspend all sensitive nuclear work. If Iran responded "No'' in mid-August, he said another resolution would be proposed under Chapter VII of the United Nations charter, which allows for economic sanctions but does not endorse military action. Russia has said using force was "absolutely excluded.''
In Russia, President Vladimir Putin said Iran should respond more quickly to the proposals to end the standoff, but he also cautioned against rushing to punish Tehran. ''We believe that the situation should not be brought to a deadlock to deteriorate it,'' Putin said. ''We of course would like Iran react quicker. But we also have negative examples of how haste in seeking solutions to other, no less sensitive or difficult issues, also in the same region, led to a situation that no one knows how to get out, that is emerging, say, in Iraq.''
Israel struck targets in Beirut and south Lebanon today in retaliation for a cross-border assault by the guerilla group Hezbollah, prompting President Bush to express concern that the Israeli actions might "topple'' the Lebanese government. Israeli warplanes fired missiles at the runways at Rafik Hariri International Airport in Beirut, shutting the airport and potentially stranding thousands of visitors at the peak of tourist season. Israeli warplanes also hit numerous locations in southern Lebanon, adding to the civilian death toll. The Israeli military said the airport was a target because Hezbollah receives weapons shipments there. Israel said that two soldiers were captured and at least eight killed in the fighting with Hezbollah. The White House released a statement condemning the Hezbollah raid, calling it an "unprovoked act of terrorism" and holding Syria and Iran responsible because of their longstanding support for the group.
The expansion of the Gaza crisis into southern Lebanon has demonstrated that the central issue at stake is regional, not local, the New York Times reports. For Israel the issue is the broader problem of radical Islam. While Israel and the United States still hope that Hamas will respond to the responsibilities of elected leadership and moderate its rejection of Israel, they have no such hopes for Iran. An Arab intelligence officer working in a country neighboring Israel said it appeared that Iran — through Hezbollah — had given support to stage the seizure of Corporal Shalit. The officer said the Shalit case, even before the capture of two more Israeli soldiers, amounted to Hezbollah and Iran sending a message: "If you want to hurt us, there are tools that we have and that we can use against you."
The Government Accountability Office has openly questioned if victory in Iraq can be achieved without a significant overhaul of President Bush's strategy. "It is unclear how the United States will achieve its desired end-state in Iraq given the significant changes in the assumptions underlying the US strategy," the GAO wrote. The review focuses on the "National Strategy for Victory in Iraq," a glitzy document released by the White House with great fanfare last November. Nine months later, congressional investigators found these high hopes were resting on shaky premises that are quickly melting away. The bedrock foundation of the president's strategy -- a permissive security environment -- "never materialized," said the authors of the report, describing the Iraqi insurgency as "active and increasingly lethal." The number of attacks increased 23 percent from 2004 to 2005 and rose to the highest ever level last April. In the absence of security, efforts to rebuild the war-ravaged country or even to return key segments of its economy to their pre-war level have hit a roadblock. If before the 2003 US-led invasion, crude oil production averaged in Iraq 2.6 million barrels a day, it stood at only two million barrels a day this past March.
Thousands of Mexicans streamed into the capital on Wednesday, riding horses, walking and packed into trucks to defend an anti-poverty crusader's claim that he was cheated out of an election that has polarized the country. The marchers said they would not back down until electoral authorities accept that Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador won the July 2 vote. Official results show Felipe Calderon won the election by 0.58 of a percentage point but Lopez Obrador has alleged fraud and an electoral court now has until the start of September to decide who is the next president. Lopez Obrador says a nationwide vote-by-vote recount is the only way to settle doubts. He has called his supporters from around the country to start gathering in the capital from Wednesday ahead of a huge march on Sunday to the Zocalo, one of the world's largest municipal squares. His party estimated that 40,000-50,000 supporters were on the move ahead of the rally. Surveys carried out by Calderon's National Action Party showed that as many as 30 percent of Mexicans believe the election was fraudulent, party aides said.
Articles: 1) Israeli Jets Strike Airport in Beirut Greg Myre And Steven Erlanger New York Times July 13, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/13/world/middleeast/13cnd-mideast.html
Israel struck targets in Beirut and south Lebanon today in retaliation for a cross-border assault by the guerilla group Hezbollah, prompting President Bush to express concern that the Israeli actions might "topple'' the Lebanese government. Hezbollah had surprised Israel with a bold daylight assault on Wednesday, leading Israel to respond by sending armored forces into southern Lebanon for the first time in six years. Early on Thursday morning, Israeli warplanes fired missiles at the runways at Rafik Hariri International Airport in Beirut, shutting the airport and potentially stranding thousands of visitors at the peak of tourist season. Israeli warplanes also hit numerous locations in southern Lebanon, adding to the civilian death toll. The Israeli military confirmed the strike, saying that the airport was a target because Hezbollah receives weapons shipments there.
2) Iran Defiant After Atomic Case Goes Back to UN Reuters July 13, 2006 Filed at 7:42 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-nuclear-iran.html
Iran said on Thursday it would not abandon its right to nuclear technology in a defiant statement after Tehran's case was referred back to the U.N. Security Council in its atomic dispute with the West. But President Bush kept up Western pressure saying Tehran could not ``wait us out'' in the nuclear dispute and Germany warned ``other steps'' would be necessary if Tehran did not respond to a package to rein in its atomic work.
3) Iran Says Will Not Abandon Atomic Rights: TV Reuters July 13, 2006 Filed at 2:44 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-nuclear-iran-ahmadinejad.html
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Thursday Iran would not abandon its right to nuclear technology, in response to a package backed by six world powers aimed at ending a nuclear standoff with the West. "Our answer to the P5+1 package is clear, the Iranian nation abides by international laws and regulations but will not abandon its obvious right to obtain nuclear technology,'' he was quoted as saying by state television. He also said Iran was ready for talks and repeated that the country would give its answer to the package by August 22, despite mounting international pressure for a quicker response.
4) US Says Israel has Right to Defend Itself Reuters July 13, 2006 Filed at 5:50 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/washington/politics-mideast-usa-reaction.html
The United States, reacting to escalating violence between Israel and Hizbollah guerrillas in Lebanon, on Thursday urged restraint on both sides but said Israel had a right to defend itself. In a widening of reprisals after Hizbollah guerrillas captured two soldiers in a border clash, Israel aircraft attacked Beirut airport and blockaded Lebanese ports.
5) Stock Futures Fall, Oil Price Hits Record High Reuters July 13, 2006 Filed at 7:14 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-markets-stocks.html
U.S. stock futures fell, suggesting a lower market open on Thursday, as oil hit a record high on Middle East and other geopolitical tensions, increasing the risk of inflation and lower corporate profits.
6) Iran Shrugs Off U.N. Council Referral Associated Press July 13, 2006 Filed at 8:57 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Iran-Nuclear.html
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Thursday shrugged off a decision by world powers to refer Iran to the U.N. Security Council over its atomic program, saying Tehran would never abandon its ''right to exploit peaceful nuclear technology.'' The permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany agreed on the referral Wednesday, saying they had given Iran long enough to respond to a package of incentives intended to persuade it to abandon uranium enrichment -- a process that can lead to the production of nuclear weapons. The powers said in Paris they would seek a resolution requiring Iran to suspend its enrichment activities.
7) Sign That Crisis Is Regional, Not Just Israel vs. Palestinians Steven Erlanger New York Times July 13, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/13/world/middleeast/13assess.html
The expansion of the Gaza crisis into southern Lebanon, confronting Israel with a conflict on its northern and southern borders, has demonstrated that the central issue at stake is regional, not local. For Israel the issue is not simply the Palestinians and their actions, including the rocket fire into Israel. It is the broader problem of radical Islam — of Hamas, as a part of the regional Muslim Brotherhood, and of Iran, a serious regional power with considerable influence on Syria, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and the military wing of Hamas.
8) Russia and China Inch Toward Iran Sanctions Helene Cooper New York Times July 13, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/13/world/13diplo.html
Russia and China, crossing a diplomatic threshold in the effort to curb Tehran's nuclear ambitions, joined the United States and Europe on Wednesday by agreeing to seek a United Nations Security Council resolution ordering Iran to freeze some nuclear activities, or face sanctions. The movement toward a resolution represented increased anger over Iran's refusal to respond to an offer of economic and energy incentives if it suspended its uranium enrichment.
9) Major Powers Will Return Iran Issue to U.N. Council E.U. Talks Spur Russia, China to Join Statement Molly Moore Washington Post Thursday, July 13, 2006; A14 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/12/AR2006071200341.html
Diplomats from the United States, Russia, China and Europe announced Wednesday that they would return to the U.N. Security Council for possible punitive action against Iran, expressing "profound disappointment" over the Tehran government's refusal to stop its uranium enrichment program or respond to incentives offered by global powers.
10) On Iran, Giving Futility Its Chance Robert Kagan Washington Post Thursday, July 13, 2006; A23 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/12/AR2006071201874.html
Let's imagine, and this is purely hypothetical, that President Bush has already decided that he will not leave office in January 2009 without a satisfactory resolution of the Iranian nuclear problem. Let's imagine that he has already determined that if he cannot obtain Iran's agreement to dismantle its nuclear weapons program voluntarily and verifiably, then he will order some form of military action to destroy as much of that program as possible before he leaves. Let's imagine that he has resolved not to end his two terms in office the way Bill Clinton ended his, by leaving every major international crisis -- from Iraq to Iran to North Korea to al-Qaeda -- for his successor.
11) Road to Victory in Iraq 'Unclear,' US Auditors Conclude Héctor Tobar Agence France Presse July 12, 2006 http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0712-04.htm
The investigative arm of the US Congress has openly questioned if victory in Iraq can be achieved without a significant overhaul of President George W. Bush's strategy, arguing the outcome of the war was presently "unclear". The findings by the Government Accountability Office mark the first time a non-partisan US government agency publicly doubted whether the geo-strategic undertaking that Bush made the defining element of his presidency, could be successful.
12) Leftist's Supporters Stream Into Mexican Capital Reuters July 13, 2006 Filed at 1:33 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-mexico-election.html
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Thousands of Mexicans streamed into the capital on Wednesday, riding horses, walking and packed into trucks to defend an anti-poverty crusader's claim that he was cheated out of an election that has polarized the country. The marchers, numbering at least 10,000, walked in separate groups from around Mexico City to its central square and said they would not back down until electoral authorities accept leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador won the July 2 vote.
-- Robert Naiman Just Foreign Policy