[lbo-talk] Kemp & Edwards agree - time to get tuff with Russia

[Steven L. Robinson]

Query how likely is a US recession on a scale sufficient to reduce demaand by 1/3 ( which would still leave the price of oil at $ 50 a barrel,  still high by historical standards) and wouldn't such a reduction be temporary. SR

-------------- Original message -------------- 
From: Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> 


> 


> Oil prices are high in part because of supply/demand fundamentals, 
> but there's a large speculative component too. I couldn't put a 
> number on it, but it's probably at least $25. A US recession would 
> reduce demand enough to change the S/D balance slightly - but it 
> could be enough to prompt a collapse in prices. It doesn't require 
> Saudi Arabia's intervention. 
> 
> Doug 
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