On Jul 14, 2006, at 2:25 PM, Steven L. Robinson wrote:
> Query how likely is a US recession on a scale sufficient to reduce
> demaand by 1/3 ( which would still leave the price of oil at $ 50 a
> barrel, still high by historical standards) and wouldn't such a
> reduction be temporary. S
Who says you have to reduce demand by 1/3? I was guessing that 1/3 of the price of oil was a speculative premium. Even a 1-2% reduction in demand would have a big effect on the psychology of price formation.
Doug