Quotes all Doug's:
>Oil prices are high in part because of supply/demand
>fundamentals, but there's a large speculative
>component too. I couldn't put a number on it, but
>it's probably at least $25. A US recession would
>reduce demand enough to change the S/D balance
>slightly - but it could be enough to prompt a
>collapse in prices
Up until the recent (last week or so) run-up, I most often heard a $10 premium cited, though that covered both speculation and political risk. One of the more compelling reads I saw had the current crude prices being driven not so much by the US' huge consumption but rather by Asia's increasing marginal demand removing all slack. A US recession could only make for China/India buying greater volumes at the ask and supporting the price. Boone Pickens was on Charlie Rose the other night saying he thought the reverse was true (a global recession taking down energy prices).
>Hmm, wonder what Soros' oil portfolio looks like?
You can look at his 13-HRs on the SEC site. From what's reported, he looks heavily weighted toward independent E&Ps. Also a chunk of Suncor (Canadian oil sands), some oilfield services/products companies, drilling products/rig construction outfits, and an oil tanker company. There's also a uranium company and some coal producers.
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