In this issue: 1) Israeli General Says Lebanon Offensive Will Last Weeks 2) Toll Climbs In Mideast As Fighting Rages On 3) Israeli Flyers Rain Down on Bemused Lebanese 4) Hizbollah Rockets Hit Haifa 5) Lebanese Army Seen As Key to Mideast Peace 6) Livni: the Time for Diplomacy Is at Hand 7) Iran Official: No Part of Israel Safe 8) Editorial: Diplomacy's Turn in Lebanon 9) Rice Intends to Visit Middle East 10) Israel Appears to Soften Its Conditions 11) G8 Hits N.Korea Tests, Backs Russia Atom Fuel Plan 12) Editorial: A War With Extremists 13) Calderon Readies New Mexico Government
Summary: Today's New York Times and Washington Post editorials on the Lebanon crisis present a study in contrasts. The New York Times says it's time for diplomacy. The dangers of escalation are too great. The Security Council is divided: the Bush administration says Hezbollah should act first, returning the abducted Israeli soldiers and halting rocket attacks before any cease-fire, while others envision a simultaneous halting of hostilities by both sides. Those differences need to be worked out, so that the killing and human suffering can stop. Washington is right to press for the release of the Israeli soldiers, but this should not be a precondition for the earliest possible cease-fire. Many lives and the stability of the wider region depend on achieving a quick halt to the fighting.
But the Washington Post says the war must go on. The current warfare "stems not from Israel's occupation of Arab lands or its holding of Palestinian and Lebanese prisoners, but from a blatant bid by Iran and Syria and their allies in Hamas and Hezbollah to stop the creation of a democratic Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza and the parallel consolidation of a democracy in Lebanon." The only satisfactory outcome is a decisive defeat for these forces. Extremists favor a cease-fire because they know that the longer the fighting continues, the more damage Israel is likely to do to the military infrastructure and leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah.
The Lebanese government, until recently considered to be allied with the West, has repeatedly called for an immediate ceasefire.
The G8 endorsed a Russian plan to create international atomic fuel centres to prevent countries from developing nuclear bombs. Moscow's plan would set up nuclear fuel centres in Russia under U.N. supervision so countries like Iran would be guaranteed access to fuel for power plants and would have no need for national enrichment programmes. It also backed a U.S. proposal to set up an international fuel bank, also to be overseen by the U.N. nuclear watchdog. The statement repeated a call from previous summits not to allow countries that do not have enrichment programmes to join the select group of enriching nations -- wording G8 diplomats said would not be endorsed at next year's summit. "Canada in particular doesn't like this and wants it out next year,'' a G8 diplomat said. A spokeswoman for Canadian Prime Minister Harper said the world's no. 1 supplier of raw uranium may eventually want to join the enrichment club.
Israeli officials accused the Lebanese military of directly aiding Hezbollah fighters in an attack on an Israeli naval vessel. It should be noted that the ship in question was enforcing a naval blockade on the country, so if it were true that part of the Lebanese military were involved in the attack it would perhaps not be shocking. A naval blockade is an act of war against a country; this is something that a country's military would ordinarily feel some obligation to respond to. 20 Lebanese soldiers have been killed and scores wounded in Israeli airstrikes.
More than 220 Lebanese civilians and a dozen Israeli civilians have been killed in the fighting so far, according to news agency reports. Efforts to evacuate foreign nationals from Lebanon continued. The fighting has displaced more than 60,000 people, the government said, a figure thought to be a conservative estimate (another press report put the figure at 100,000.) Human Rights Watch called on the Israeli military to provide details about a bombing Saturday that killed 16 people in a convoy of civilians fleeing a Lebanese village near Israel's border. A truck carrying medical supplies donated by the UAE was hit and its driver killed on the Beirut-Damascus highway, the Health Ministry said.
A top Israeli general said today that Israel's offensive in Lebanon would last another few weeks, and he said that the use of large numbers of ground forces had not been ruled out. He said the army needed more time to complete it goals. On Monday the general said that Israel thought it would have another week before international pressure built up enough to work out an enforceable cease-fire.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert vowed that Israel would not halt its offensive on Lebanon until four conditions were met: the release of two soldiers abducted last week, the deployment of the Lebanese army along a buffer zone at the border, the withdrawal of Hezbollah fighters from that zone and the implementation of U.N. Resolution 1559, which calls for the disarmament of militias such as Hezbollah.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will travel to the Middle East to try to resolve the crisis, Bush administration officials said. Israel's ambassador to the United States said that it might be too soon for Ms. Rice to accomplish anything.
In Gaza, Palestinian doctors in Beit Hanoun said three people were killed in their homes by Israeli snipers and 14 others wounded. An Israeli military spokeswoman said that seven rockets were fired from the area Monday, injuring two Israeli civilians.
Israeli flyers are raining down on Lebanese -- some are cartoons mocking Hizbollah, others are warnings to stay away from the stronghold of the guerrilla group. The flyers are part of attempts by Israel to turn Lebanese against the guerrilla group. Lebanon is already split between opponents of Hizbollah who blame the group for sparking an Israeli campaign, and supporters of the group. But such caricatures appear to have little effect on people's opinion. "The cartoon flyer is cute. Usually these are threats to destroy Beirut and since we are seeing people blown up on TV all the time, this seems like comic relief,'' said a graphic designer. "I didn't like the warnings to people to leave the south though, because where does Israel expect people to go when it has cut off the roads?'' Residents scared by strikes and Israeli warnings have fled but roads are unsafe. Over 200 civilians have been killed in Lebanon since the crisis began a week ago, including 20 who died when an Israeli missile struck their van as they fled a border village in line with Israeli warnings by loudspeaker.
"It is urgent that the international community acts to make a difference on the ground,'' UN Secretary General Annan said in Brussels, suggesting a new UN force that would operate differently from U.N. peacekeepers who have patrolled south Lebanon since 1978. He was speaking after talks with the European Commission President, who said some EU member states were willing to contribute troops.
A poll in the mass-circulation Yedioth Ahronoth daily said 86 percent of Israelis believed the army's attacks on Lebanon were justified. Many favored assassinating Hizbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.
In Israel, Public Security Minister Dichter said Israel might at some stage have to negotiate over Lebanese prisoners held in Israel to end the crisis.
The international community, led by Israel, wants Lebanese soldiers to deploy along the border to push back Hezbollah fighters as a condition in any future peaceful settlement, the AP reports. But analysts say such a move is problematic because ethnic and religious divisions have left the 70,000-strong force unable to function well as an independent fighting force. On Saturday, Lebanese Prime Minister Saniora said his government wanted to work with the United Nations toward reasserting state authority over all Lebanese territory. The Lebanese army far outnumbers Hezbollah's estimated 6,000 fighters. But its troops lack guerrilla battle experience and religious zeal. With many Shiite members, the army could also break up along sectarian lines, as it did during the civil war.
Israel would be ready to call a cease-fire with Hezbollah if its captured soldiers are returned, the Lebanese army deploys along the countries' shared border and the future disarmament of the militia can be guaranteed, its foreign minister said Tuesday. Livni said the time for diplomacy was at hand, though she added that Israel's military operations would not end until its goals are reached. Livni also gave a tacit endorsement for an international force in Lebanon that could temporarily help the Lebanese army enforce a cease-fire. In recent days, Western nations have proposed sending a beefed-up international force to the area, bolstering one already in place there -- a proposal that until now has been received coolly by Israel. Livni also said, however, that Israel's experience with the current U.N. force stationed in south Lebanon was ''not satisfactory'' and that Israel prefers no such force in the long-term. In recent days, Israeli officials have sent conflicting signals about whether Israel would demand Hezbollah's disarmament as a condition for a cease-fire. Livni's comments indicated Israel would accept future disarmament, provided that Lebanon immediately deploy its own troops along the border to prevent any future rocket attacks against northern Israel.
U.S. Secretary of State Rice intends to travel to the Middle East to seek to calm the region, it was reported last night. There was no word yet on timing of the visit, but Israel's ambassador to the United States said now was not the right moment for her to go. Lebanon's special envoy to the United Nations also said now was not the time for a visit by Rice.
In Mexico, Felipe Calderon said Monday he has begun working on his new government, even though the country's electoral court has yet to declare a winner in the disputed race. Under Mexican law he cannot be declared president-elect until an electoral court deals with challenges to the vote. But Calderon said Monday the country can't sit dormant pending a decision from the court, which must rule on the election by Aug. 31 and declare a president-elect by Sept. 6. Calderon's comments came a day after more than 300,000 (more than a million, according to one press report) Lopez Obrador supporters jammed the capital's central plaza. Chanting ''Vote by vote!'' they backed the former mayor's calls for a manual re-count of an election he says was stolen from him by fraud.
Articles: 1) Israeli General Says Lebanon Offensive Will Last Weeks Steven Erlanger And Jad Mouawad New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/18/world/middleeast/18cnd-mideast.html July 18, 2006
A top Israeli general said today that Israel's offensive in Lebanon would last another few weeks, and he said that the use of large numbers of ground forces had not been ruled out. Maj. Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky, Israel's deputy chief of staff, told Israel Radio that the army needed more time to complete "very clear goals." He added: "The fighting in Lebanon will end within a few weeks. We will not take months.'' On Monday, General Kaplinsky told a reporter that Israel thought it would have another week before international pressure built up enough to work out an enforceable cease-fire.
2) Toll Climbs In Mideast As Fighting Rages On As Leaders Weigh Plans, Westerners Flee Beirut Anthony Shadid, John Ward Anderson and Debbi Wilgoren Washington Post Tuesday, July 18, 2006; 8:20 AM http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/18/AR2006071800413.html
BEIRUT, Lebanon, July 18 -- Israeli warplanes bombed a Lebanese army base early Tuesday, wire services reported, killing 11 soldiers and ratcheting up an armed conflict that has raged on both sides of the border for nearly a week. Hezbollah, the militant Shiite group that triggered the fighting with a cross-border ambush last Wednesday, fired seven more rockets that hit the Israeli cities of Haifa and Safed on Tuesday but caused no injuries, officials said. Efforts to evacuate foreign nationals from Lebanon continued.
3) Israeli Flyers Rain Down on Bemused Lebanese Reuters July 18, 2006 Filed at 7:52 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-mideast-lebanon-flyers.html
BEIRUT (Reuters) - Israeli flyers are raining down on Lebanese -- some are cartoons mocking Hizbollah, others are warnings to stay away from the stronghold of the guerrilla group. In a crude drawing, leaflets dropped by Israeli planes over Beirut depict Hizbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah as a cobra dancing to the tune of the flute-playing leaders of Iran, Syria and Palestinian group Hamas.
4) Hizbollah Rockets Hit Haifa Reuters July 18, 2006 Filed at 7:59 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-mideast.html
BEIRUT (Reuters) - Israeli warplanes battered Lebanon on Tuesday, killing 26 people, and more Hizbollah rockets hit the Israeli city of Haifa, with no sign that diplomacy would halt the week-old conflict any time soon. Nine family members, including children, were killed and four wounded in an air strike on their house in the village of Aitaroun. Four people were killed in other strikes in the south. A truck carrying medical supplies donated by the United Arab Emirates was hit and its driver killed on the Beirut-Damascus highway, the Health Ministry said.
5) Lebanese Army Seen As Key to Mideast Peace Associated Press July 18, 2006 Filed at 8:48 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Mideast-Lebanese-Army.html
BEIRUT, Lebanon (AP) -- Lebanon's national army has been largely a spectator in the bloody confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah. Its troops are taking casualties in Israeli airstrikes and standing by as guerrillas fire rockets at northern Israel, provoking punitive reprisals. Now the international community, led by Israel, wants Lebanese soldiers to deploy along the border to push back Hezbollah fighters as a condition in any future peaceful settlement. But analysts say such a move is problematic because ethnic and religious divisions and decades of Syrian dominance have left the 70,000-strong force unable to function well as an independent fighting force.
6) Livni: the Time for Diplomacy Is at Hand Associated Press July 18, 2006 Filed at 7:46 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Israel-Lebanon.html
JERUSALEM (AP) -- Israel would be ready to call a cease-fire with Hezbollah if its captured soldiers are returned, the Lebanese army deploys along the countries' shared border and the future disarmament of the militia can be guaranteed, the foreign minister said Tuesday. After a week of fighting, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said the time for diplomacy was at hand, though she added that Israel's military operations would not end until its goals are reached.
7) Iran Official: No Part of Israel Safe Associated Press July 18, 2006 Filed at 4:27 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Iran-Israel.html
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- No part of Israel is safe in the current fighting with Lebanon, Iran's parliamentary speaker warned Tuesday, referring to the range of guerrilla rockets. Speaking to a crowd of thousands of anti-Israel demonstrators in Palestine Square, Tehran, Speaker Gholam Ali Haddad Adel told Israelis: ''The towns you have built in northern Palestine (Israel) are within the range of the brave Lebanese children. No part of Israel will be safe.''
8) Editorial: Diplomacy's Turn in Lebanon New York Times July 18, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/18/opinion/18tue2.html
International diplomacy finally started to stir yesterday in response to the havoc on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border, including calls by the United Nations secretary general, Kofi Annan, and Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain for dispatching an international peacekeeping force. Stopping the fighting won't be easy, but the dangers of escalation are too great to permit the major powers, or worried Arab rulers, to turn away.
9) Rice Intends to Visit Middle East Reuters July 17, 2006 Filed at 6:22 p.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/washington/politics-mideast-usa-rice.html
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice intends to travel to the Middle East to seek to calm the region where Israel has bombarded Lebanon for days and the militant group Hizbollah has fired rockets into the Jewish state. "At some point in the future, the secretary intends to travel to the region,'' State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters.
10) Israel Appears to Soften Its Conditions Associated Press July 17, 2006 Filed at 3:57 p.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Mideast-Fighting-Israel.html
JERUSALEM (AP) -- Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Monday that the fighting in Lebanon would end when two Israeli soldiers were freed, rocket attacks stopped and the Lebanese army deployed along the border. But he appeared to scale back from previous demands for Hezbollah to be dismantled.
11) G8 Hits N.Korea Tests, Backs Russia Atom Fuel Plan Reuters July 17, 2006 Filed at 10:27 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-group-nuclear-arms.html
ST PETERSBURG, Russia (Reuters) - The Group of Eight industrial nations condemned North Korea's recent missile tests and endorsed a Russian plan to create international atomic fuel centres to prevent countries from developing nuclear bombs.
12) Editorial: A War With Extremists This Middle East conflict should end with the defeat of its instigators. Washington Post Tuesday, July 18, 2006; A18 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/17/AR2006071701310.html
SOMEWHAT remarkably, the world leaders gathered in St. Petersburg managed to grasp the most important point about the current Middle East crisis: It "results from efforts by extremist forces to destabilize the region and to frustrate the aspirations of the Palestinian, Israeli and Lebanese people for democracy and peace." In other words, the current warfare in Lebanon, Gaza and Israel stems not from Israel's occupation of Arab lands or its holding of Palestinian and Lebanese prisoners, but from a blatant bid by Iran and Syria and their allies in Hamas and Hezbollah to stop the creation of a democratic Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza and the parallel consolidation of a democracy in Lebanon.
13) Calderon Readies New Mexico Government E. Eduardo Castillo Associated Press July 18, 2006 Filed at 1:12 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Mexico-Elections.html
MEXICO CITY (AP) -- The top vote getter in Mexico's presidential election said Monday he has begun working on his new government, even though the country's electoral court has yet to declare a winner in the disputed race. Conservative Felipe Calderon, of President Vicente Fox's ruling National Action Party, led official returns from the July 2 election by about 244,000 votes -- just 0.6 percentage points. However, under Mexican law he cannot be declared president-elect until an electoral court deals with challenges to the vote.
-- Robert Naiman Just Foreign Policy www.justforeignpolicy.org