I actually think Frank is correct about how right-wing populism can be mobilized through resentment generated over hot button "moral" social issues, but the demographics are wrong. (and I might point out this is what Jean Hardisty and I have been saying for over 25 years--not that Frank gives us any credit).
John Green has shown that the biggest predictors for this are regular church attendance, and affiliation with a range of conservative evangelical churches and para-church ministries. In addition, these people tend to get individually contacted by Republican voter outreach campaigns at a higher rate than Democratic voters.
For some discussion, check out:
http://www.trincoll.edu/depts/csrpl/RINVol6No3/2004%20Election/religion%20gap.htm
But a newer article by Green and Silk does some number crunching:
http://www.trincoll.edu/depts/csrpl/RINVol8No1/WhyMoral%20ValuesDidCount.htm
-Chip
________________________________
From: lbo-talk-bounces at lbo-talk.org on behalf of Doug Henwood Sent: Fri 3/3/2006 3:31 PM To: lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org Subject: RE: [lbo-talk] Bartels on Frank, etc.
Wojtek Sokolowski wrote:
>Speaking more broadly, attempts to predict voting behavior from broadly
>defined socio-demographic characteristics of individuals seem overly
>deterministic to my taste.
I'm not sure if this is meant as a critique of Bartels. But that is certainly not what he is up to; he was testing the claims of What's The Matter With Kansas using self-reported voting data.
Doug ___________________________________ http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/mailman/listinfo/lbo-talk
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