--- jthorn65 at sbcglobal.net wrote:
>
>
> It's been talked about by oil geologists since the
> very early '50's but until recently not enough was
> known to
> allow an acurate attempt at a projection. 50 years
> is more than "a few years ago".
Good point. I may also add that knowledge and the public perception of what "is known" often do not go in tandem. The latter is and exercise in cherry picking. The public (mainly thrugh its opinion leaders) selectively focuses on rather narrow aspects of scientific research and focuses on those that fit a particular collective mood. The public version of thaose thoeries may do away with aall thier subtleties, caveats and scope conditons and disseminate a simplistic or even propagandistic version. "Social Darwinism" is a good example.
Having said that, however, the "oil peak" is not necessarily a supply-side phenomenon, even though the supply side story (we are running out of oil!) is certainly sensationalistic. It is more likely the demand side - which is growing exponentially. It is onbvious that China and India, that population-wise dwarf the United states by the factor 8:1, will be demanding more oil as they modernize. Even if citizens of these countries consumed only a quarter of energy consumed in the US - that alone will result in tripling the current demand of the US. So if tripling of current demand will not push the prices north, I do not know what will.
High gasoline prices may not be such a big deal in countries that have alternative transportation infrastructure - but the US is not one of them. The US may have the technology to rebuild that infrastructure but doe not have the resources anymore.
So the doomsayers may have a point here. Perhaps it will not be a spectacular collapse a la the x-USSR, but more like a slow devolution, progressive inflation eating away stagnant wages and savings, especially retirement benefits, coupled with cuts in services.
Emanuel Todd predicts devolution i.e. shrinking of about 27 percent of the current GDP. That can be achieved by creeping inflation alone coupled with creative Enron-style accounting in calculating CPI - "variable basket" (i.e. replecament of goods in thebasket with inferior substitutes), "hedonic valuation" (i.e. prices of computers driving the CPI south), inflating the GDP by creative imputations (e.e. rent you "pay" to yourself for living in the house you own) and kindred charlatanry. With any luck and progressing lunacy of the population, the US may as well shrink by a third and nobody will even notice.
Wojtek
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