[lbo-talk] detailed Iraq poll

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Thu Mar 23 11:56:29 PST 2006


[about a quarter still believe that Iraq had WMDs and a connection with 9/11]

<http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pdf/mar06/USIraq_Mar06_rpt.pdf>

Key findings of the study were:

1. The Decision to Go to War By a two-to-one margin, Americans now say that the Iraq war was a war of choice, not a war of necessity-i.e., it was not necessary for the defense of the US-and that the war was not the best use of US resources. For the first time, a majority now believes that Iraq did not have a weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program, though the public is still divided on whether Iraq supported al-Qaeda. Such beliefs are highly correlated with support for the war. A large bipartisan majority says that if Iraq did not have WMD or did not support al-Qaeda, the US should not have gone to war. Majorities in both parties perceive the Bush administration as continuing to say that Iraq did have WMD or a major WMD program and provided substantial support to al-Qaeda.

2. Future of US Military Presence A large majority of Americans want to begin drawing down US troops in Iraq, although only one in four favors a quick pullout. Two out of three perceive that the situation in Iraq is getting worse, and a clear majority expresses low confidence that the US intervention will succeed. A majority is not convinced that a US withdrawal would make the situation in Iraq worse than it is. Support for drawing down US troops does not appear to be related to the growing number of US troop fatalities. The strongest factor appears to be the perception that the presence of US troops provokes more attacks, followed by the lack of confidence that the operation will ultimately succeed.

3. The Issue of Permanent Military Bases Versus a Timeline for Withdrawal A large bipartisan majority of Americans oppose permanent US military bases in Iraq and believe that most Iraqis are opposed as well, but a modest majority believes that the US nonetheless plans to have permanent bases. A large majority thinks that the US should be willing to accept a new Iraqi government setting a timeline for the withdrawal of US troops, and thinks that most Iraqis want such a timeline, but an overwhelming majority thinks that the US would refuse to agree to such a timeline.

4. Multilateral and Non-Military Approaches A number of leading political analysts have discussed the option of making the Iraq operation more multilateral. A large bipartisan majority of Americans would support doing so even if this would require the US to relinquish some control over the operation. While Americans are showing doubts about military forms of involvement in Iraq, there is strong support for non-military approaches.

5. Comparing American and Iraqi Public Opinion A WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of Iraqis conducted in January of this year provides the opportunity to compare Iraqi views to American views. Overall, Americans and Iraqis show a surprising amount of agreement about the presence of US military forces in Iraq, in particular opposing a permanent US presence and assuming that the US may well be planning one. Both sides also favor a more multilateral military operation in Iraq. At the same time, Americans have numerous misperceptions about the attitudes of Iraqis on a number of key issues.



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