> In "normal" times, the expected return (positive or negative) on
> foreign policy in the Middle East would be negligible for most U.S.
> capitalists. I imagine that even for large U.S. capitalists, it will
> be rather modest.
And then replied:
> Except for one little sector - oil, an interest that figures very
> heavily in Republican politics, and which cares about the Middle East
> very much. It's hard to see how one of the most oil-soaked
> administrations in history would pursue a foreign policy that harmed
> petrocapital.
Yes, this turns it into a much more complicated story. But it doesn't necessarily refute it.
As far as the U.S. policy in the region is concerned, the Republicans have managed to promote the interests of an unlikely coalition of special interests that includes big oil (most under Arab land), radical Zionism, and big military contractors. (The Dems are not total outsiders in this racket.) Doesn't the support of radical Zionism conspire against the stability of this coalition, since advancing the big-oil interest requires deals with Arab powers? I guess so.
But you have to give it to them. We cannot observe directly the wheeling and dealing, but it's a complicated piece of engineering. I don't have HBO, but I guess the Sopranos may prove useful in understanding how pitting two accomplices against each other -- within a broader framework in which spoils are shared -- can help the mafia to stick together... at least until it can't.
But regardless of how uneasy and complicated that combination is, I would try not to lose sight of the big issue here: In all counts (big oil, Zionism, and the military-industrial complex) the interests of most U.S. capitalists (and people) are being sacrificed.
Just to give an idea of the direct pecuniary cost involved, M&W estimate the total milking of U.S. taxpayers to help radical Zionism in $3 billion per year or "$500 a year for every Israeli" (as if each Israeli got its share!). Tiny compared to the U.S. budget ($2 trillion) or total corporate gross profits ($1.2 trillion).
Annual total "national defense" is $590 billion (of which $440 billion or so go to the DoD) -- like 4 per cent of GDP. That's huge. But only so much can be fleeced using the policies in the Middle East as shears. Over $100 billion go to pay personnel. Big chunks are committed locally and a bit to other regions of the world. That leaves only so much to be made in imperialist adventurism in the region. And big oil... well, let's just say that in these fat-cows years, Saudi Arabia's total annual oil revenues is around $150 billion.
But, again, I'm just hinting at the direct, initial dollar costs of the policy. The concern now is that the further repercusions of these policies are turning out to be much more costly that U.S. capitalists had initially assumed. Or that's at least my interpretation of M&W's paper.
Julio