Bush Slumps to a New Low; It's About Iraq
George W. Bush's job approval rating has slumped to 33 percent, tying the all-time low for presidential approval in 25 years of ABC News/Washington Post polls. Sixty-five percent disapprove, a new high.
The reason - try as he might to change the subject - is the war in Iraq.
Americans who disapprove of Bush's performance overwhelmingly cite Iraq as the main reason. His rating for handling the war is at a new low. Sixty-two percent say it was not worth fighting, a new high. And 59 percent call the war "a mistake" - about as many as said so about Vietnam in the early 1970s.
Unhappiness with the war has infected broader views of the administration, Congress and the country's direction. Sixty-nine percent say the country is on the wrong track, the most since the mid-1990s. Pessimism about the policies Bush will pursue over the year ahead has jumped by 10 points since December, to 53 percent. Congress' approval rating is as bad as Bush's, and its worst since the mid-'90s.
War a "Mistake" - Highs ABC News/Washington Post and Gallup polls
Vietnam (5/71) 61% Iraq (today) 59% Korea (3/52) 51% Serbia (6/99) 47% Persian Gulf (1/91) 30% Afghanistan(11/01) 9%
B ut deep as it is at the national level, this unhappiness does not constitute broadly based malaise, which more often has economic roots. It dissipates locally: While just 29 percent say the nation is going in the right direction, more, 45 percent, say their state is headed the right way, and 58 percent say their local community is on the right track.
Indeed, in stark contrast to their national political views, more than eight in 10 Americans are satisfied with their own lives and optimistic about their personal future. Six in 10 are optimistic about their local economy, and nearly eight in 10 are optimistic about their own family's financial situation.
But that's of little help to Bush, whose unpopularity may imperil his party's fortunes in November. There's a strong correlation between presidential approval and losses for the president's party in midterm elections. And the Democratic Party leads the Republicans in trust to handle each of 10 specific issues tested in this poll - including, for the first time, terrorism, a serious inroad into the administration' core strength.
BUSH - The president's situation is fairly dire. His approval rating now matches his father's low in August 1992, the summer before he lost re-election. His disapproval rating is the highest in ABC/Post polls since 1981, and a single point from the highest in Gallup polls since 1938 (that record is Richard Nixon's).
Intensity, too, is against him by record margins: Nearly half of Americans, 47 percent, "strongly" disapprove of Bush's job performance, while just 17 percent strongly approve, 3 the fewest of his presidency. Viewed through a partisan lens, 73 percent of Democrats strongly disapprove of Bush, while far fewer Republicans, 41 percent, strongly approve.
While he's down across the board, Bush's biggest losses have been among moderate Republicans - 57 percent of them now approve of his job performance, compared with a career average 84 percent. His approval rating is just 40 percent even in the "red states" he won in 2004; in John Kerry's blue states, it's 25 percent.
Majorities overall disapprove of Bush's work on seven out of nine specific issues tested in this poll, soaring to a high of 76 percent disapproval for his handling of gasoline prices. His only positive ratings are for handling the U.S. response to terrorism (53 percent, long the almost single-note source of his support) and protecting privacy rights in terrorism investigations (52 percent).
Other presidents have fared worse than Bush's current level: Harry Truman saw 22 percent in 1952, Richard Nixon 23 percent in 1974 and Jimmy Carter 28 percent in 1979 in Gallup polls. But historically, as first noted last fall, Bush's approval rating across his career most closely resembles that of Lyndon B. Johnson as the country became enmeshed in Vietnam. Johnson's approval rating in Gallup polls fell from 75 percent on average in 1964 to 43 percent in 1967 and 1968. Bush, for his part, has gone from an average of 73 percent approval in 2001 and 2002 to an average 40 percent so far this year. The trend lines are strikingly similar.
IRAQ - Further on Iraq, three-quarters call the level of U.S. casualties unacceptable. But the public's discontent is not about casualties alone, but policy and credibility as well. Fewer than half say the war has contributed to long-term U.S. security, its most basic rationale. And 52 percent think the administration "intentionally misled the public" in making its case for the Iraq war.
Fifty-five percent are now pessimistic about the situation in Iraq in the year ahead, up a sharp 11 points since December.
All the same, these views do not translate into any increased demand for quick, complete withdrawal. Fifty-four percent of Americans say the number of U.S. forces in Iraq should be reduced, about the same as it's been since December. Many fewer, 17 percent, call for immediate withdrawal of all U.S. forces from Iraq, and this too has been steady.
NOVEMBER TEA LEAVES - The Democrats show strong possibilities for November if they can overcome the inertia of incumbency and produce a clear and compelling message. Registered voters by 52-40 percent prefer the Democrat over the Republican candidate in their congressional district; 56 percent of Americans would like to see the Democrats win control of Congress.
At the same time, the Democrats so far seem to be benefiting from dissatisfaction with Bush more than building their own appeal. Fifty-two percent say the Democrats are not offering the country a clear direction that's different from the Republicans. And 5 disapproval of the Democrats in Congress, at 58 percent, is nearly as high as disapproval of the Republicans, 64 percent.
A challenge for the Democrats is that while Congress gets broad disapproval, 62 percent approve of the way their own representative is handling his or her job. That suggests some breathing room for incumbents - as does that fact that, on average in midterm elections since 1946, 92 percent of incumbents have been re-elected to the House.
But another result gives pause: Fifty-five percent say they're inclined to look around for someone else to vote for, the highest "look around" number since October 1994, just before the transformational election in which Republicans won control of Congress.
Sentiment bears watching as the election draws nearer. By October 1994, 78 percent disapproved of Congress (it's 63 percent today), and most crucially, just 49 percent approved of their own representative (as noted, it's 62 percent now).
Depending on views in their individual districts, some Republicans running in November may seek to distance themselves from Bush, while a likely Democratic strategy will be to tie Republican candidates to the president. Thirty percent of Americans say they'll cast their vote in November to show opposition to Bush - double the number who said so in November 2002. And among those who favor a Democrat, more, 49 percent, say it's partly to show opposition to the president.
6 Among the available tea leaves in election politics, history is one of the weakest. But the president's party has lost House seats in 13 out of the last 15 midterm elections (1946- 2002), averaging a 24-seat loss. Of the four presidents with a second midterm election, only Bill Clinton gained seats, and the average loss in a second midterm has been 19 seats.
IMMIGRATION - Politicians in trouble usually try to change the subject, and immigration is a sensible choice for Bush. Three-quarters say the United States is not doing enough to keep illegal immigrants out of the country - and, given that view, the public broadly supports sending National Guard troops to patrol the border with Mexico.
Support for the proposal peaks in Bush's political and ideological corner - 85 percent of Republicans like the idea, as do 86 percent of conservatives. But it also wins support from about three-quarters of independents and moderates, and two-thirds of Democrats. It falls shorter among liberals, with 51 percent in favor, 47 percent opposed.
Overall, 74 percent support the idea, with 25 percent opposed. In another sign of its appeal, it's supported by 76 percent in Bush's red states, and by about as many, 71 percent, in the blue states.
Support for sending the Guard peaks in the East, the area of the country farthest from the border, and it's lowest - but still 65 percent - in the West, dominated by California and its large immigrant population. It's also more popular among whites (77 percent) than among nonwhites (60 percent).
National Guard for border control
Support Oppose
All 74% 25
Democrats 64 35
Independents 73 25
Republicans 85 14
Liberals 51 47
Moderates 74 24
Conservatives 86 13
East 83 15
West 65 32
Separately, 77 percent say the country is not currently doing enough to keep illegal immigrants from coming into the United States, and 58 percent feel strongly about it - numbers that have been stable in polls since early last year.
Concern about border security is quite high across political groups, ranging from 73 percent of Democrats to 80 percent of Republicans; and it takes in about eight in 10 moderates and conservatives alike, falling to 59 percent of liberals.
Still, immigration may prove a tricky issue for Bush and the Republicans. Among all Americans, 11 percent call it the most important issue in their vote in November, but that nearly doubles among conservative Republicans to 21 percent - their top issue. The challenge is that Bush's base is strongly with him on border patrol, but more equivocal on the other aspect of his immigration policy, a guest-worker program with the chance of permanent status.
GAS - Bush seems less likely to hold a primetime speech on gasoline: As noted, his single worst rating is for handling gas prices - 20 percent approve, 76 percent disapprove. Fueling that view is a belief that the administration does have the power to do something about the price of gas; 62 percent say so.
All the same, many Americans are accommodating themselves to higher gasoline prices: The number who say the price of gas is causing them financial hardship has dropped by 13 points in the last month, to 57 percent. And more said they'd cut back on driving when prices spiked after Hurricane Katrina than plan to do so now.
The relatively strong economy thus seems to be shielding many Americans from the impact of higher gas prices. But it's doing far less to shield the president from the impact of an unpopular war.
METHODOLOGY - This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone May 11-15, 2006, among a random national sample of 1,103 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. (The results on immigration were fielded May 12-14 among 508 adults; the error margin for that sample is 4.5 points.) Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
Analysis by Gary Langer.